BUREAU OF AGRICULTUEAL ECONOMICS. 147 



has always been one of the most serious and baffling problems of the 

 crop estimator. 



Probably the most outstanding development has been the exten- 

 sive use for the first time of what is called the " field count " method 

 of estimating changes in acreage. Briefly, this consists of the count- 

 ing of the number of fields in each kind of crop along selected 

 routes in a State, the same routes being covered from year to^year, 

 a sufficient distance being covered to be typical of the entire State. 

 A further improvement has been made by the development of a 

 multiple speedometer or measuring instrument, which can be at- 

 tached to the automobile, by which the linear measurements can be 

 made to determine the number of feet or yards in each kind of crop 

 between stated points. A number of these instruments are now 

 being constructed and it is expected that they will be generally used 

 for estimating the 1924 crop. The results obtained by this method 

 indicate that, knowing the total area of land in a given section, it 

 will be possible to estimate rather accurately the distribution of the 

 acreage among the various crops as well as in idle and pasture land. 

 By going over the same routes two or three times during the season, 

 the acreage planted to any crop which has been abandoned or planted 

 to other crops during the season can also be determined. 



As the field-count method is a purely objective one, the personal 

 equation is entirely eliminated. It can be used, furthermore, when 

 the field-measurement plan is adopted and the total land area known 

 in estimating one year's acreage independently of any previous year, 

 which should go a long way toward eliminating cumulative errors. 



Another method which is extensively used and which through 

 better statistical analysis has been made more useful than formerly 

 is that of securing from thousands of farmers in each State a report 

 each year of the acreage each farmer has sown or planted to each 

 crop, as well as the acreage in idle and unimproved land. The 

 acreage in the various crops for the past year as well as the current 

 year is secured for each farm reporting, making it possible to make 

 a direct percentage comparison with the previous year as well as to 

 determine the ratio of the various crops to each other as well as to 

 the total acres in the farm. 



STUDY OF NEW STATISTICAL METHOD. 



A section of research has been established in the division during 

 the past year and placed in charge of a thoroughly trained statis- 

 tician. This section is now completing a study and revision of the 

 department's estimates of acreage, yield, and production of all the 

 principal crops for the various States back to 1866. These revisions 

 will probably be published in the next Yearbook of the department. 



Studies are also being made with a view to improving the technic 

 of forecasting, including improvement in the methods of establish- 

 ing the pars used in interpreting condition figures. Correlation 

 studies of the relation of price and other factors to the acreage, as 

 well as of the relation of weather to yield, are being made, all having 

 for their object the development of a better basis for forecasting. 



