422 



ANNUAL REPORTS OF DEPARTMENT OE AGRICULTURE. 



crops by checking against such figures as are available for crop 

 movement, receipts at primary markets, and exports. In the case of 

 the cotton crop, however, an absolute check is afforded by the annual 

 census of the number of bales ginned. The following table shows 

 the annual estimates by this bureau in December in comparison with 

 the annual report of bales ginned by the Bureau of the Census the 

 following March : 



Annual cotton estimates of the Bureau of Crop Estimates, compared with 

 annual Census reports of cotton ginned. 



Crop year. 



Pounds of lint cotton 

 (OOOomittedJ. 



[Estimated byi Finally re- 



I Department I ported by 

 of Agricul- : Census 



ture. Biu-eau. 



1900 4, 856, 738 



1901 4, 529, 954 



1902 5, 111, 870 



1903 4, 889, 796 



1904 6, 157, 064 



1905 4, 860, 217 



1906 ' 6, 001, 726 



1907 5, 581, 968 



1908 6, 182, 970 



1909 ; 4,826,344 



1910 5,464,597 



191 1 ' 7, 121 , 713 



1912 6, 612, 335 



1913 6, 542, 850 



1914 7, 637, 113 



1915 ! 5,338,588 



1916 j 5, 506, 896 



1917 ' 5, 237, 379 



1918 : 5, 595, 529 



1919 1 5,275,096 



20 years , 1900-1919 ' 113, 330, 743 



5 years, 1915-1919 : 26,953,488 



3 years, 1917-1919 i 16, 108, 004 



Over- Under- 

 esti- esti- 



mated, mated. 



4,846,471 

 3,440,940 

 5,091,641 

 4,716,591 

 6,426,698 

 5,060,200 T 

 6,-354,110 

 5,312,9.50 I 

 6,336,070 

 4,7&3,220 I 

 5,551,790 

 7,506,430 i 

 6,556,500 i 

 6,772,350 

 7,718,980 ' 

 5, .354, 406 

 5,480,012 i 

 5, 406, .3.50 I 

 5,760,184 I 

 5,462,208 



Per cent. | Per cent. 



.9 



3.4 



1.1 



.3 



3.0 

 3.0 

 3.4 



11.5,048,111 

 27,463,160 

 16,108,004 



1.5 

 1.8^ 

 3.1' 



Note that the average deviation of the estimates from the census 

 during the entire period of 20 years was 2.5 per cent and the average 

 underestimate for the 20 years Ih per cent; that in 1915 and 1916- 

 it Avas less than one-half of 1 per cent; and for the last three 

 years it was about 3 per cent under the final census report. These 

 later underestimates appear to have been due partly to the prac- 

 tice which developed during the war of prolonging the picking 

 season and gathering unopened bolls after the close of the picking 

 season, called " hollies " and " snaps," which was encouraged by the 

 relatively high price for both lint and seed. This new factor appears 

 not to have been taken into account by the cotton reporters. 



ENLARGED PROGRAM. 



In the last annual report attention was called to the increasing 

 demands for service since the beginning of the World War. These 

 demands are continuing, and fall naturally into the following classes : 



(1) Estinaate.s and forecasts of consumption, production, export and import 

 requirements, and available surplus of agricultural products, both for the 

 United States and for foreign countries, as a basis for intelligent planting and 

 marketing programs. 



(2) Information in advance of planting time or while planting is in progress 

 as to the acreage to be planted in different crops, in order that a prospective 



