706 ANNUAL REPORTS OF DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. 



because of the lai)se of voars between censuses upon Avhich such 

 estiinatos must bo iiriinarily based. 



Heretofore, ag^ricultural censuses have been taken once in ten years; 

 hereafter, such censuses are required by law to be taken every live 

 j^ears; and the execution of the hiw Avill contribute to the f];reater 

 accuracy of tlic Bureau's estimates by furnisliing more frequent reports 

 based on actual enumerations to which the estimated annual per- 

 centajije of increase or decrease can bo anplied. 



Thouo;h there may bo farmers, as well as others, includinf}j perhaps 

 a few lai^e protlucers, handlers, and purchasers of a<:jricultural 

 products, who do not take personal co<;nizance of the official monthly 

 crop reports of tlie Bureau, and do not regulate their marketings or 

 dealings in farm surpluses or reserves with reference to prospective 

 or probable ultimate yields of growing crops, they are, nevertheless, 

 indirectly benefited by these reports. The market prices in centers 

 of trade and distribution are largely governed by probabilities of 



Production as affecting the law of supply and demand wdiich can not 

 e abrogated, and must, in the last analysis, establish price. Such 

 prices are, to a great extent, regulated and controlled by dependable 

 mformation regarding growing crop conditions and probable yields, 

 and are thus measurably protected from speculative manipulation 

 based on exaggerated reports promulgated for the sole purpose of 

 causing unjustifiable market price fluctuations. 



The producer is protected as well as the consumer, and the evil 

 effects of manipulative speculation are largely counteracted. The 

 seller is enabled to realize such prices as are just, and the buyer pays 

 what the product purchased is properly worth. 



CROP CONDITION REPORTS. 



Though regular, systematic reports on the condition of crops during 

 the growing season have been made for many years by the statistical 

 branch of the Department of Agriculture, there is occasional mis- 

 understanding and lack of appreciation of them by those w^ho do not 

 comprehend their character or value, which would be obviated by an 

 understanding of their nature, meaning, and use. 



The status — that is, the general condition as to healthfulness and 

 prospective yield — of growing crops, from seed time to harvest, has 

 always been of vital interest and importance. Before systematic 

 periodical reports were issued by the Government for the whole 

 country, crop conditions were, and always had been, the subject of 

 constant discussion and estimates regarding the probabilities of 

 bountiful, average, or meager yields. But formerly such estimates 

 were indefinite and intangible, were expressed in words as variable in 

 meaning as the personalities of those using them, and incapable of 

 translation into any form of statement capable of clear interpretation 

 or intelligent comparison. 



For example, an agricultural observer would describe a growing 

 crop as ''doing fairly well;" another would say, "corn is in need of 

 rain;" another, "corn prospects are fair;" yet another, "corn is 

 growing rapidly, and with good weather will yield handsomely," and 

 so on. Such reports as these were wholly incapable of reduction to 

 any definite, understandable statement. It was necessary to read 



