BUREAU OF STATISTICS. 707 



the entire mass of them, and to gather an impression upon which to 

 base a formulated statement of their meanin"^, which, in itself, would 

 be more or less vague and indefinite. Whether such reports would 

 indicate a full, normal crop, or some percentage of a full crop, could 

 not be decided by any one. The method possessed but little value. 



Under the plan of reporting crop conditions now pursued, which has 

 been followed since 1871, the statements of reporters are expressed in 

 figures instead of words, which indicate the percentage of full yields 

 expected under existing conditions, in defined geographical areas. 

 The reports are capable of tabulation and mathematical computation, 

 and of such interpretation as to afford definite, comparable informa- 

 tion. This method is admittedly the best, in fact, the only one by 

 which growing crop conditions can be intelligently sho\\Ti; and when 

 the individual reports of large numbers of well-informed persons are 

 properly rendered their consolidation can not fail to indicate existing 

 prospects with approximate accuracy. 



It should be said, however, that there can be no such infallible 

 judgment, no such exact knowledge of the promise of present con- 

 ditions, as to enable any one, no matter how intelligent and well 

 informed, to indicate by figures or in any other manner precisely 

 what relation an existing crop condition bears to an ultimate harvest. 

 The observer can only make an estimate, based on his best knowledge 

 and judgment, and render his report accordingly'. If after a careful 

 survey of the situation, he is of opinion that a normal crop is promised, 

 he will report the condition as 100; or, if he thinks that only three- 

 fourths or a crop can be expected, he will report "75." His reports 

 are estimates, and, from their very nature, can not more than approxi- 

 mate the facts; on the other hand, when large numbers of such 

 reports are combined, the resulting figures must closely represent 

 actual conditions. 



It should not be inferred that the indicated condition of any crop 

 at any time during the growing season will certainly foretell the 

 ultimate production. Many contingencies may, and frequently do, 

 arise before and up to the time of harvest, affecting the final jdeld 

 either adversely or beneficially, and it would therefore be unwise, 

 because probably misleading, to base an unchangeable estimate of 

 production upon any reported growing condition; such condition is 

 subject to frequent cliange, is almost constantly deteriorating or 

 improving, and any prognostication of the final harvest returns based 

 thereon would fail or verification unless the condition estimates were 

 exactly correct and no change in conditions occurred after they had 

 been made. 



The value of condition reports consists in the closely accurate 

 representations they afford of growing crop prospects at given times 

 before harvest, expressed in such manner as to convey definite mean- 

 ings capable of being readily understood, and of enabling comparisons 

 to be matle with conditions, similarly expressed, at corresponding 

 periods in preceding years. Such reports supply the constant and 

 ever-increasing demand for tangible, intelligible mformation regarding 

 the subject to which they relate, crop conditions during growing 

 seasons being of universal interest and concern. The chart on page 

 19, showing the condition of corn on October 1 in the past twenty 



