708 ANNUAL KEPOKTS OF DEPAHTMENT OE AGRICULTURE. 



years, expressed in percentages of a normal condition, and the final 

 yield, as estimated in ])ecemhcr of each year, expressed in bushels 

 per acre, demonstrates how closely the condition reports forecast the 

 linal results of harvests. 



ADDITIONAL SPECIAL FIELD AGENTS NEEDED. 



It is the constant aim and earnest endeavor of tliis Bureau to sup- 

 ply the public witli unbiased crop estimates which shall be as approx- 

 imately accurate as is possible with available means and sources of 

 information. 



Experience has shown that for the past few years, during which a 

 small corps of skilled special field agents, devoting their entire time 

 and attention to our work, has been employed, the Bureau's esti- 

 mates have been more generally accepted as correctly indicating 

 conditions and probable yields than formerly, and whenever prov- 

 able by subsequentl}^ ascertained facts they have been shown to 

 have been sufficiently close to form bases upon which producers and 

 consumers alike have been justified in relying. 



The scope and accuracy of these estimates can be still further 

 enlarged if means can be supplied to increase the number of special 

 field agents. The territory now covered by each of the small present 

 force, consisting of only seventeen men, is entirely too large for any 

 one man to canvass and report upon fully every month. 



A small addition of $10,000 to our appropriation would enable the 

 employment of three special field agents, making twenty in all, with 

 a corresponding reduction in size of territory in important districts, 

 and not only provide for their necessary traveling expenses but also 

 permit the promotion of a few agents whose present salaries are not 

 commensurate with their faithfulness, zeal, and efficiency, whose 

 strenuous labors deserve recognition and encouragement. 



PRODUCTION AND POPULATION, 

 HISTORICAL PROCEDURE. 



Frequent assertions that the fertility of the soils is washing into 

 the streams and that the productivity of cultivated land is diminish- 

 ing are misleading the public into the belief that the agriculture of 

 this country is decadent and that there is life in the old formula 

 that population must tend to increase at a greater rate than subsist- 

 ence. 



The situation can not be understood until it is examined histor- 

 ically. This is a country in which millions upon millions of acres of 

 fresh land have been coming into production faster than the domestic 

 consumption has required, and at times beyond the takings of import- 

 ing foreign countries. As eminent a man as Gen. Francis A. Walker 

 expressed the belief that under such circumstances farmers on the 

 fresher soil were economically justified in robbin;; the land. 



All of the historical phases of agriculture now exist in this country. 

 First, the "soil robber;" next the diminishing production per acre on 

 " inexliaustible land," which surprises the farmer; next the agri- 

 cultural scientist, who points the way to a better agriculture and 

 larger production per acre, with poor responses from the farmers. 



In the course of time, especially when the next and perhaps the 

 third generation takes the farm, important advances are made, at 



