REPORT OF THE SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE. 



AVasiiixgton, D, C, November 15, 1917. 



Sir: TTIien, on April 6, 1017. the existence of a state of war with 

 German}' was declared by Congress, this country was facing an unsat- 

 isfactory situation in respect to its supply of foods and feedstuffs. 

 The production in 1916 of the leading cereals, corn, wheat, oats, 

 barley, rye, buckwheat, rice, and kafirs was comparatively low, ag- 

 gregating 4,806,000,000 bushels, as against 6,010,000,000 for 1915, • 

 4.983,000,000 for 1914, and 4,884,000,000 the annual average for 

 1910-1914. The wheat crop of 1916 especialh/ was strikingly small. 

 It was only 639.886,000 bushels, as compared with the record produc- 

 tion for 1915 of 1,026,000,000, with 891,000,000 for 1914, and with the 

 average for the five years 1910-1914 of 728,000,000. It was certain, too, 

 that on account of adverse weather conditions, the output of winter 

 wheat for 1917 would be greatly curtailed. The world production 

 of wheat for 1916 also was unsatisfactory, and the prospects for the 

 ensuing year were not good. The situation was no better in respect 

 to another conspicuously important food commodity, the Irish 

 potato. The yield of this crop for 1916 in the United States was only 

 285.437.000 bushels, while for 1915 and 1914, respectively, it was 

 359,721,000 and 409,921,000. For the period 1910-1914 it averaged 

 360,772,000. 



Even in normal times public attention fixes itself particularly on 

 the supply of wheat and potatoes. In time of war it does so much 

 more intensely, especially on the supply of wheat, which is peculiarly 

 important from a military point of view. Because of their shortage 

 here and elsewhere and of the large foreign demand, apprehension 

 and, in some quarters, hysteria developed. The supply of meats and 

 of poultry and dairy products was somewhat larger than in the years 

 immediately preceding, but the foreign demand was great and 

 increasing and exports were steadily rising. It was obvious that 

 the supply of feedstuffs would not be normally abundant, and 

 that it would be difficult to maintain the usual number of live stock 



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