304 



ANNUAL KEPOETS OF DEPAETMENT OF AGEICULTUBE. 



when compared with the reports of the Census Bureau of bales ac- 

 tually ginned: 



Number of pounds of lint cotton (net weight) as estimated in December, annu- 

 ally, by the Bureau of Crop Estimates, and as subsequently reported by the 

 Bureau of the Census, for each of the seasons 1900-1901 to 1916-17, inclu- 

 sive, together with the percentage overestimated or underestimated by the 

 Bureaii of Crop Estimates each season. 



ACCURACY OF THE RICE CROP ESTIMATES. 



In order to determine the accuracy of the department's estimate of 

 rice production for 1915, issued in December of that year, and thereby 

 afford to the Bureau of Crop Estimates the basis for any adjustments 

 necessary to increase the accuracy of its estimates in future years, re- 

 quests were sent to all rice mills that they report their receipts of 

 rough rice from the crop of 1915. Eeturns have been received for 

 every rice mill of importance in the United States, showing — 



Bu.shels. 



Total mill receipts of rough rice in bushels of 45 pounds each 27, 396, 991 



Seeding requirements for present year, approximately 1, 765, 800 



Mills reporting (estimate for one) show sales for seed of- 223, 578 



Leaving to be furnished by local elevators or retained by farmers 



for seed 1, 542, 222 



Production of rice east of Mississippi River, not including 

 river rice in Tennessee and Mississippi, but including 

 upland rice in the latter State, is estimated at 160, 000 



Deducting factors for this territory already considered, viz., 



mill receipts and seed requirements 104, 000 



Leaves further to be added 56, 000 



Thus accounting definitely for a total of 28, 995, 213 



Total production as estimated by Bureau of Crop Estimates in De- 

 cember, 1915, was 28,947.000 



Showing an excess over the bureau's estimate of 48, 213 



Or about two-tenths of 1 per cent. 



