EEPORT OF THE SECRETARY. 13 



when it gave place to wheat and then to cotton, but this year cotton 

 is apparently below hay in value. It was a most productive year for 

 grass and hay, and the harvest of hay is measured by 72,425,000 

 tons. No previous year has equaled this quantity; it is 16 per cent 

 above the average crop of the preceding five years. 



The value of the hay crop this year, $861,000,000, has not been 

 equaled. It is immensely more valuable than the crop of 1910, which 

 bad held the record. The average value of the hay crops of the 

 preceding five years is exceeded by the value of this year's crop by 21 

 per cent. The importance of this crop to the farmer is better realized 

 when it is observed that its value is greater than that of the cotton 

 crop and nearly as great as the combined values of the wheat, 

 tobacco, and potato crops. 



COTTON. 



It is too early to estimate the production of cotton this year, but 

 there is a general agreement throughout the country that the crop 

 will be the second one, considerably below the great crop of 1911 and 

 somewhat above the next highest crop, which was raised in 1901. If 

 the lint produced equals the general expectation, it will weigh about 

 one-eighth more than the average crop of the preceding five years. 



In value, as well as in production, the cotton crop of this year 

 stands second. While the production of 1911 was greater, the value 

 of that crop was not correspondingly large, and was exceeded by 

 the much larger value of the much smaller crop of 1910. The crop of 

 1910 had 11,609,000 bales of 500 pounds and was worth to the pro- 

 ducer $788,000,000; the crop of 1911 had 15,693,000 bales and was 

 worth only $661,000,000. The lint crop of 1912 may be worth 

 $735,000,000. 



.Cotton often demonstrates the frequently observed fact that a 

 crop of excessively high production mnv not be worth as much in 

 the aggregate as one that is about sufficient for the requirements of 

 consumption. It is a matter of great importance to the farmer that 

 he should not overproduce. Not that he objects to the presence of 

 an abundance of products for their own sake, but that he foresees un- 

 profitable prices. Farmers, in their collective action, endeavor to 

 produce about the quantity of a crop that they can market at profit- 

 able prices. An experience of years gives them a rough sort of judg- 

 ment with regard to this quantity, but they can not foresee what the 

 weather will do to their crops. Having made their planting and 

 sowing plans, it may be assumed, with fairness to themselves and 

 also to consumers, the crop suffers under unforeseen adversities, there 

 is inadequate production, and the general conclusion is that the agri- 

 culture of the country is unable to meet national requirements. This 



