REPORT OF THE SECRETARY. 21 



for oats, 20.4 per cent; for barley, 13.7 per cent. For cottonseed the 

 decline is 11.3 per cent, and for cotton lint 1.8 per cent; flaxseed, 15.1 

 per cent ; potatoes, 20.1 per cent ; wool, 9.8 per cent. 



On the other hand, increases of crop prices of 1912 compared with 

 the preceding five years are found in some instances. For rough rice 

 the increase is about 14 per cent ; for hay, 2.1 per cent ; for tobacco, 2 

 per cent ; for hops, 2G.3 per cent ; for eggs, 8.5 per cent. 



PRESENT RESTORATION OF FORMER PRICE LEVELS. 



Prices of farm products for December 1 have been collected by the 

 Bureau of Statistics for many years. If mean prices are computed 

 for decades, a series of price levels can be established and the trend 

 of prices can be better observed. In the case of wheat, for instance, 

 the mean price, December 1, for the United States at the farm was 

 115.5 cents from 18G6 to 1870; it was 99.5 cents from 1871 to 1880; 

 82.2 cents in the next decade; and C3.2 cents in the decade of lowest 

 prices, 1891 to 1900; afterwards the increase was to 79.6 cents in 

 the decade of 1901 to 1910; and the farm price for 1912 is nearly 83 

 cents, or about at the level of the decade 1881 to 1890 .and consider- 

 ably below the level of the preceding groups of years back to 1866. 



A similar treatment of cotton prices shows that the mean price of 

 cotton in 1808 and 1869 was 14.3 cents; in the following decade it was 

 12.1 cents, after which it declined, until in the decade of extremely 

 low prices, 1891 to 1900, the price is only 6.9 cents. In the following 

 decade cotton rose to 10.8 cents; and in 1912 it is worth at the farm 

 about 11 cents. 



In the case of corn there was a decline on the whole from 52.1 cents 

 as the mean of 1866 to 1870 to 33 cents for 1891 to 1900, followed 

 by the mean price of 48.8 cents in the decade 1901 to 1910 and the 

 price of about 55.5 cents for 1912. 



The decline of mean prices of oats was from 39.7 cents in 1866 to 



1870 to 26.1 cents in 1891 to 1900, with a recovery to 36.3 cents in 

 1901 to 1910, and the present price is about 33.7 cents, or substantially 

 a restoration of the price level of the two decades extending from 



1871 to 1890. 



The price record for potatoes discloses the extremely low position 

 of the price of this year's crop. The mean price for 1866 to 1870 was 

 56.1 cents, from which there was a decline on the whole to 44.8 cents 

 from 1891 to 1900. The next decade had a price of 58.6 cents, and the 

 price for 1912 is about 45.8 cents, or close to the level of the lowest 

 price period of many years, which was from 1891 to 1900. 



The foregoing extracts from price records of the Bureau of Statis- 

 tics are indicative of tlie general downward movement of the prices 

 of farm products from the Civil AV^ir until it was arrested in about 

 the middle of the decade extending from 1891 to 1900, The subse- 



