BUREAU OF CROP ESTIMATES. 283 



ACCURACY OF COTTON CROP ESTIMATE. 



Cotton is the only crop for which there is an absolute check on 

 the estimates of the Bureau of Crop Estimates. On December 10, 

 1915, the bureau estimated the 1915 cotton crop at 11,161,000 bales 

 of 500 pounds each. The Bureau of the Census, Department of 

 Commerce, is required by law to report every bale of cotton ginned, 

 and at the close of the season the census showed 11,059,000 running 

 bales, equivalent to 11,183,000 bales of 500 pounds (including 39,000 

 bales estimated yet to be ginned after March 20, 191G), as having 

 been ginned from the 1915 crop. The estimate of the Bureau of 

 Crop Estimates, issued more than three months previously, was 

 only 22,000 bales too low on the entire crop, or less than one-fourth 

 of 1 per cent. 



IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION AND EQUIPMENT FOR ESTI- 

 MATING CROP AND LIVE-STOCK PRODUCTION. 



Methods of improving the crop-reporting service are constantly 

 under consideration in the Bureau of Crop Estimates. As pointed 

 out in the previous annual reports of this bureau, the most difficult 

 problem encountered in crop reporting is an attempt to estimate 

 ;;creages planted to different crops and the numbers of different classes 

 of live stock on farms; also such special crops as truck and fruit. To 

 take an annual census of acreages and live stock can not be considered 

 because of the enormous expense involved and the time required to 

 compile and publish the results. Returns of local tax assessors in the 

 various States are not always complete, uniform, or available when 

 needed. In lieu of an annual census enumeration the best substitute 

 appears to be an organization or system of reporting for definite 

 areas under the constant observation of field agents who are trained 

 in crop-reporting methods, supplemented by reports of large numbers 

 of individual farmers distributed throughout each area, and by 

 reports of trained specialists on each crop. This in effect is the system 

 at present employed by the Bureau of Crop Estimates. Obviously, the 

 smaller the territory assigned to each field agent, or what means the 

 same thing, the greater the number of field agents assigned to a given 

 territory, the more thoroughly the acreages and condition of crops 

 and the numbers of different classes of live stock can be studied, and 

 the more satisfactory will be results. That better results can be se- 

 cured from a smaller division of territory has been fully demon- 

 strated since the bureau has had a trained field agent in each of the 

 principal agricultural States, instead of one agent for a group of 

 States, as formerly. However, it is evident that even a single State 

 in the important producing areas is entirely too large for one man to 

 cover effectively. 



If sufficient funds were available to fully develop and perfect the 

 crop -reporting service it would be highly desirable to give the field 

 agent in each State one or more trained assistants, so that the State 

 could be divided into districts and a survey made of its agricultural 

 resources and production by counties. It would also be desirable to 

 provide the field agent in each State with a clerk to assist in folding 

 and mailing schedules of inquiry, opening and tabulating returns. 



72412°— agb 1916 19 



