No. 5. DEPARTMENT OP AGRICULTURE. 315 



By following the weather forecasts in the daily papers, we all 

 notice how often they miss it. But it is claimed that they are right 

 about 90% of the time. Most people would question this figure; but 

 I think if you will follow up the matter you will find that the fail- 

 ures generally occur when the prediction is ''local showers" or some- 

 thing of that kind. That means that there will be many showers 

 over a very limited area, and of course in the same area there will 

 be many places where it does not rain. Here is one place where the 

 farmer can increase his information and can predict the weather 

 more successfully than the weather man. When there are general 

 storm conditions extending over large areas, then uniform weather 

 prevails. It may be clear or it may be rainy; but where local condi- 

 tions prevail, mountains and river valleys, direction of wind and 

 other circumstances will determine whether there will be rain or 

 frost in a certain locality. By long observation and the keeping of 

 careful records, the individual can often forecast more accurately 

 for his locality than a person not acquainted with local conditions. 

 It may be that weather conditions are repeated from season to season 

 or by cycles of years. During last year I heard of two New England 

 institutions that wished to hold out-of-door celebrations. They 

 looked up the weather for a number of past years and found that 

 there were certain weeks when it was generally fair. They picked 

 out one of these periods and in both cases they had good weather. 



Now I do not wish to leave the impression that I think it would 

 be possible to always determine when there would be sunshine; but 

 there may be times when the weather is more likely to be fair in 

 your community than at others. If there are such times, would it 

 not be possible, in this age of plant breeding, to have crops ripen at 

 such a time that good weather might be expected ? 



How can the farmers care for the water after it has reached the 

 farm. There are two uses for water on the ordinary farm: That 

 which is used for the animals and that which is used by the plants. 

 These subjects are often discussed by the meteorological writers. 

 The farmer often fails to give these subjects sufficient attention; 

 Generally, I think, because he has not studied the subject. We all 

 know that a great amount of water is necessary for the growth of 

 plants. In Pennsylvania about 40 to 4.5 inches of water falls an- 

 nually. This is more than enough to raise any crop that we plant, 

 yet we often have poor crops for lack of moisture. By studying the 

 influence of trees on certain parts of his farm, he might be able to 

 plant them in such localities that they would hold the snow, pre- 

 vent the winds from uncovering the fields and sometimes even re- 

 moving the soil, and in other ways help hold the moisture till needed 

 by the crop. Plowing in fall or spring is often a determining factor, 

 depending on the lay of the land and the character of the soil. 

 Knowing the time at which the precipitation is likely to occur, there 

 is no one who sliould be so woll prepared to know how the soil should 

 be handled as the intelligent farmer. 



Another point is tlif drainage. What kind of water is the farmer 

 passing on to his neighbor or. if he is a careful man, what kind of 

 drainage is his neijjbbor passino; on to him. As we heard last night, 

 if the farm above him has tubercular cows, the creek which runs 

 through his farm will certainly be contaminated; and we all know 

 what that means for his herd of cattle. But more important still is 



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