No. 6. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. 399 



The 1915 crop was a harrl one to estimate in advance and nearly as 

 hard to review. Several inlluences have contributed to bring about 

 these results. 



As noted in former reports to this Board, there has been a wide- 

 spread epidemic of aj)i)le plantinji, bejjinniug nearly fifteen years ago, 

 reaching its height 4 years ago, and decreasing to the present time. 

 Millions of trees have been planted, most of them in rather well de- 

 fined and long established apple sections, but in many cases entirely 

 new orchard sections have been developed to a really tremendous 

 degree, notably some of the mountain districts of southern Pennsyl- 

 vania, western Maryland and West Virginia. Still other plantings, 

 some of them really very large and aggregating numbers almost be- 

 yond conception, have been located here and there throughout the 

 whole country, including Canada. These new orchards are beginning 

 to bear in such numbers that no crop estimate is of any value unless 

 it figures them as a considerable part of the whole and none of the 

 crop estimating machinery now in use seems to be equipped to con- 

 sider these outlying, heretofore unreported sections at all. 



Local Spring frosts put some sections entirely out of business, 

 giving the impression of a crop failure, while only a few miles away 

 there may have been no frost and a heavy crop resulting. 



Pear blight, on apple, particularly the blossom form, was more 

 prevalent than usual, in many cases actually destroying the crop; 

 while in other cases the only result was to thin the setting of fruit 

 and leave plenty for an abundant crop. General report, however, 

 pronounced a crop failure throughout the whole southern section 

 where blight was common this year. 



A still further difficulty encountered in crop estimating, is the 

 feeling on the part of many growers, fostered by various organiza- 

 tions and publications, as well as by some public officials, that it 

 will be to their advantage to have the crop underestimated, thus 

 making it most difficult to get a true report from the very people 

 who are best able to give the facts. This is a form of dishonesty 

 that is hard to understand, for in the end it deceives no one quite so 

 much as the growers who practice it. Further development of this 

 report will perhaps make this point clear. 



Various estimates of growers' associations, apple dealers' organiza- 

 tions and the Division of Markets of the United States Department 

 of Agriculture, placed the 1915 crop at from 60% to 80% of the 

 1914 crop which was a very large one. Stress was laid on the im- 

 proved industrial condition of the country. 



Now, apple buyers as a class, have a peculiar characteristic. Con- 

 trary to the common belief, they are easily deceived in the matter 

 of an apple crop, for they want to believe that good prices are ahead 

 and lend willing ears to just such reports as were common the past 

 season. This was the result. Apple buyers were active, competition 

 among them was keen and in the end all the apples that could be 

 bought in the large commercial sections were put under contract at 

 from 12.50 to |3.00 per barrel f. o. b. for the No. 1 fruit. Now. there 

 was no market in the whole country that would warrant these pi'ices 

 during the months of harvesting, but the dealers felt that the future 

 was safe, with this result: On January 1, the storage houses of the 

 country contained nearly one hundred thousand barrels more apples 



