196 State Horticultural Society. 



cold, wet and dry, floods, hurricanes, cyclones, etc., and that sometimes 

 certain of the planets get into and remain for a time in some unusual 

 position towards other ones, and that that is what causes most of the 

 disturbances on our earth, and that when these conditions continue for a 

 series of years it is called a cycle and during the continuance of that 

 cycle we may expect conditions unusual and disastrous, not only to the 

 farmer and fruit grower, but more or less to the entire commercial world. 



Now let us assume that there is such a thing as a cycle and then try 

 to locate one, which I think is an easy task for the average fruit grower 

 of Missouri. Surely we can all agree that we are in the midst of one 

 of these cycles at the present time. If we all had a sufficient knowl- 

 edge of astronomy we might be able to say just when the present cycle 

 began and when it will end, and where it will end, but without that 

 knowledge we can only judge by actual experience of the past, and by 

 that and matters of record for the future. We all still remember the 

 extreme and disastrous drouth of 1897 when not only our orchard trees 

 suffered by thousands, but forest trees died in some sections of the State 

 by the million. The next (1898) was a fairly good year, but our 

 orchards had not recovered from the severe shock of 1897 when that 

 mem.orable cold spell of February, 1899, came and finished such trees 

 as were partly killed by the drouth and killed and injured many more 

 in nursery and orchard. The year 1900, like 1898, was a fairly good 

 year, but the orchards and forests had not sufficiently recovered from 

 the disasters of the previous years to withstand the greath drouth of 

 1901 and again the orchards and forests suffered greatly. 



As a result of all these troubles our orchards have not recovered 

 and being so weakened in vitality have not been able to withstand the 

 rigors of the years 1902-3-4. As a rule the apple orchards of Missouri 

 have not had a good, healthy crop of foliage or fruit in all this period. 

 The past year, however, 1904, has shown a marked improvement. The 

 foliage on the average orchard has shown more health and vigor and 

 the wood has made a better growth than any year during this period, 

 and the fruit buds for next year seem to be in perfect condition. Is 

 the cycle complete? How are we to tell? The improved conditions of 

 the last year are encouraging and lead us to hope that we are near the 

 end. The great famine referred to in the Good Book lasted seven years, 

 and after that were years of plenty. The present cycle has lasted seven 

 years. 



Is it unreasonable to hope for years of plenty in the near future? 

 Has all this series of disasters taught us anything? I believe that all 



