158 - STATE HORTICULTURAL SOCIETY. 



figures are an average of results from, the middle class of orchards. There 

 is no getting away from these facts. 



Each one of lis can have his own idea as to whether these actual aver- 

 ages of past yields and prices are safe to count on for the future. They 

 nuiy not be, and yet they may be exceeded in both respects. 



I know of orchards where actual results this past season were far 

 ahead of these figures, not only on apples, but on cherries and peaches 

 as Avell. I have one in mind, a little apple orchard which I bought near 

 Grand Rapids. 



There were six acres of Steel Reds, Spys and Jonathans. The price 

 paid was high (|4.25 per barrel f. o. b. for all these varieties; there were 

 a few trees of odd kinds which I did not buy) but was not a record price 

 ior last season by any means. There were a little over 1000 barrels of 

 those varieties on about 170 trees. The gross sales at the station, includ- 

 ing the culls, was .|4800.00. The barrels, picking and packing together 

 cost approximately f750.00, leaving net receipts for the fruit on the 

 trees of |4050.00, or say .fOoO.OO per acre. 



Turning to my estimates, you wlU see that the highest average on 

 aj)ples for any period is 172.00 per acre, which gives quite a leeway when 

 compared with .fGSO.OO. True, the price paid for this little orchard was 

 high, and the yield good, but far from a record in either respect, for yields 

 of ten barrels per tree and prices of $5.00 per barrel are not uncommon. 

 So much for apples. 



As to peaches, the highest estimate I have made is .|165.00 i>er acre per 

 year. 



One of the largest growers of the state near Frankfort gave niie his 

 figures a short time since, and they showed for last year's (1909) ojiera- 

 tion over |800.00 per acre net on one orchard of Elberta peaches. Con- 

 siderable leeway there, too. is there uot? The same grower has a large 

 acreage of cherries. He puts them up artistically in western style, and 

 of course gets prices above the average. His orchard of Montmorency 

 cherries netted him over .11,000.00 per acre this past year, and his Oxharts 

 much more. The highest estimate I make is |400.00 per acre on cherries. 



It may be said : ''It is not safe to base future expectation on present 

 day prices." That's true enougli, and were I going into a large planting 

 proposition I should base my figures on a yield 50% less than I really 

 expected, on prices 50% lower and on exi^enses and original cost of plant 

 50%, higher. If on that basis I could not see a future profit, I would not 

 start. 



It's the fashion for the trade and the consumer to complain of present 

 high prices on fruit and to predict lower ones. I always do, and yet, 

 ten years from now, prices may be higher instead of lower. 



Ten years ago, after a heavy crop, it was freely predicted that we would 

 never again see apples as high as |2.00 i^r barrel at the shipping station. 

 Since that time 14.00 has been paid several times for large orcliards and 

 in a few instances |o.00, and the average has been nearly 13.00, so i)re- 

 dictions of lower prices may not be fulfilled, and they may be even higher 

 than now. 



Some will say: "You cannot compete against the west," but that is 

 a mistake. Michigan can compete with any section, if they will but use 

 the methods of the west. 



We hear wonderful things about the west, and certain isolated orchards 



