Pa PC 6 



BETTER FRUIT 



Max 



The Commercial Apple Crop of the United States 



By J. Clifford Folger, Assistant Fruit Crop Specialist, Bureau of Crop Estimates, Washington, D. C. 



the apple trees 



THE growing importance of the 

 commercial fruit industry in the 

 United States, the development of 

 highly-specialized districts devoted to 

 the production of fruit crops, and the 

 distribution of these crops into ex- 

 tended markets, all eiuphasize the need 

 for a more careful study of the so- 

 called commercial production, with a 

 view to a more complete forecast of the 

 probahle ([uantities of different fruits 

 which will he placed on the market in 

 any given year. 



Commercial fruitgrowers are inter- 

 ested in knowing the probable produc- 

 tion of marketable fruit, in order that 

 they may dispose of their own crops 

 to the best advantage. Buyers are no 

 less interested in reliable forecasts in 

 order that they may approximate more 

 closely what the market will permit 

 them to pay. Misinformation supplied 

 from biased sources cannot prove prof- 

 itable to either. For example, in a year 

 when the commercial crop is under- 

 estimated, buyers might pay more than 

 the market justified, but as a result in 

 the following year they would quite 

 naturally be over-cautious, their mar- 

 gins increasing or decreasing with the 

 risk involved. In other words, reliable 

 forecasts on conuucrcial fruit produc- 

 tion will tend to limit speculation and 

 to stabilize the industry. 



Many growers are inclined to place 

 the commercial production paramount 

 and discount the remainder of the crop. 

 However, the total agricultural produc- 

 tion is of general interest and must of 

 necessity be the basis for all fruit esti- 

 mates. In considering the apple crop, 

 and this is the most important fruit 

 crop froiu a commercial standpoint, we 

 find that in the total agricultural pro- 

 duction, there are certain well-defined 

 lines of cleavage. The first line of 

 demarkation separates the apples actu- 

 ally sold by the farmer from those con- 

 sumed or left on the farm. In the 

 apples sold there is a further line of 

 distinction between those which are to 

 go for fresh fruit consumption and 

 those which are to be used for drying 

 or in the manufacture of cider, vinegar 

 or other by-products. In reality, then, 

 it is the part of the commercial apple 

 crop which goes into commercial chan- 

 nels for consumption as fresh fruit 

 that so vitally interests the apple grow- 

 ers. This portion of the apple crop 

 might be divided further into that part 

 which is placed on the market in stand- 

 ard packages, such as barrels or boxes, 

 and that part which is marketed in bulk 

 or otherwise. 



Specifically, forecasts will be of 

 greater value to the individual as they 

 succeed in more closely analyzing the 

 total agricultural production along cer- 

 tain lines of natural cleavage, these 

 forecasts limited, of course, by accu- 

 racy and practical difficulties of obtain- 

 ing them. Estimates to include the 

 probable production of the different 

 leading varieties of apples in any state, 

 or better, in any given district, would 



furnish the grower of any particular 

 variety of apples more detailed infor- 

 mation of the crop prospects in certain 

 specific competing districts. 



Recognizing the great importance 

 which the fruitgrowers attach to a 

 forecast of the commercial fruit crop 

 as outlined above, and realizing the 

 benefits to be derived from a more 

 detailed analysis of the total agricul- 

 tural production, the Bureau of Crop 

 Estimates in the United States Depart- 

 ment of Agriculture has already taken 

 impoi'fant steps in this direction in past 

 reports, and now proposes to go fur- 

 ther in its collection and dissemination 

 of fruit-crop estimates. It is manifest, 

 however, that hastily constructed or 

 imperfect plans could result only in 

 failure, and that only with the co- 

 operation of fruitgrowers, dealers, and 

 those interested in the fruit industry 

 generally can the best results be 

 obtained. An idea of the importance 

 of the undertaking may he had from 

 the fact that the total annual produc- 

 tion of fruits is valued at more than 

 $300,(10(1,000. Of this amount the apple 

 crop contributes more than any other 

 single crop. For this reason the 

 Bureau of Crop Estimates will confine 

 its efforts at first to perfecting a sys- 

 tem for estimating the apple crop. 

 Later, attention is to be directed to im- 

 proving the present estimates of other 

 fruits. 



A brief consideration of some of the 

 characteristics of the apple industry as 

 a whole is important in its bearing 

 upon crop estimates. In specialized 

 areas such as those in the Pacific 

 Northwest a very high percentage of 

 the total production is commercial, 

 while in other sections having a large 

 agricultural production a very small 

 percentage of the crop is sent into com- 

 mercial channels in an average year. 

 Yet unusually light or unusually heavy 

 crops in parts of the country may 

 cause such districts to direct a very 

 appreciable percentage of their pro- 

 duction into commercial channels. Im- 

 portant changes in total production may 

 be caused by young orchards coming 

 into bearing, or by a decrease in the 

 number of bearing trees. In some dis- 

 tricts summer varieties are an impor- 

 tant part of the commercial crop, in 

 others they are negligible. There is 

 also a wide fluctuation in the yield of 

 fruit trees one year with another. The 

 biennial habit of bearing of many vari- 

 eties of apples, frost damage and other 

 influences explain the irregularity in 

 local yield which is more pronounced 

 than in many other crops. 



Thus many difficulties attend the 

 work of perfecting a method of statis- 

 tical inciuiry regarding the commercial 

 apple crop. While it is not within the 

 province of this article to discuss meth- 

 ods of statistical inquir\-, still the gen- 

 eral methods of securing crop forecasts 

 are of interest to many. At the outset 

 an actual enumeration nf the number 

 of barrels of apples being produced on 



all of the apple trees in the United 

 States in any given year would be both 

 impractical and unreliable, and yet the 

 approximate size of the crop in barrels 

 may be determined by other methods. 

 These methods may be characterized as 

 based upon comi)arison and a compar- 

 ison for any given area can best be 

 drawn by the growers themselves, or 

 by those who have been in intimate 

 touch with the crops of this area over 

 a period of several years. The best 

 judgment of a large number of those 

 who are in closest touch with crop con- 

 ditions may be interpreted into definite 

 figures by a comparison with accurate 

 estimates of previous years. To this 

 end the Crop Estimates Bureau for 

 many years has used lists of several 

 thousand apple growers and others 

 closely allied with the apple industry 

 who are called upon from time to time 

 to furnish reliable information on rep- 

 resentative areas in all parts of the 

 country. These lists, of course, are 

 contsantly changing and being aug- 

 mented, and the inauguration of the 

 extended apple estimating service will 

 necessitate a liberal extension of an 

 already large list. 



For the total agricultural production 

 of apples as well as all other crops, a 

 complete system of forecasting has 

 been perfected which includes reports 

 from every township of agriculutral 

 importance in the United States. In the 

 past the estimates for the agricultural 

 production of apples have been secured 

 from four separate and distinct sources, 

 each more or less complete and acting 

 as a check upon the other three. They 

 are as follows: (1) The above-men- 

 tioned list of several thousand apple 

 growers who have been furnishing 

 periodic information in response to in- 

 c|uiries relating solely to the apple crop. 

 (2) A voluntary crop reporter in each 

 township who reports monthly to the 

 Bureau on the crops of his neighbor- 

 hood. (3) A voluntary reporter in each 

 county who also reports monthly for 

 the entire county, basing his reports 

 upon personal observation, interviews, 

 and upon reports from farmers and 

 others, in difl'erent parts of the county. 

 (■4)A salaried field agent in each state 

 who spends most of his time, during 

 the growing season, traveling over his 

 respective territory and keeping in inti- 

 mate touch with crop conditions. Each ' 

 slate agent maintains a list of several 

 hundred well-informed men who re- 

 port to him monthly. It may be seen 

 that the above machinery, which has 

 developed from many years' work in 

 the collection of estimates, is by far the 

 most reliable and impartial means of 

 collecting crop statistics and has fur- 

 nished the basis for estimating agricul- 

 tural production, including all fruits 

 and the more specific forecasts on the 

 apple crop. However, this general sys- 

 tem of crop reporting is designed more 

 particularly for field ci'ops, grown gen- 

 erally throughout an entire state or 



