26 THE CUBA REVIEW 



AVAILABLE 1919 SUPPLIES OF UNITED STATES 



MARKET 



The available supply of sugar for the United States during 1919 is now fairly- 

 well established in view of revised crop estimates now at hand. They indicate on 

 their face a supply which, allowing for the deductions indicated in the accompanying 

 table, will permit a per capita consumption of 81 pounds. This would be close to 

 the per capita basis prevailing in 1913, 1914 and 1915, which may be considered as 

 the normal rate unaffected by conditions created by the war. 



Whether unrestricted demand would bring about a higher rate of consumption 

 than this is of course a matter of conjecture. It is reasonable to assume that con- 

 sumption, freed from the restrictions of the war time period, will swing heavily in 

 the other direction as the year progresses. The prohibition legislation which becomes 

 effective this year will also have a considerable influence and will bring about an 

 increase in consumption, the proportions of which it is impossible to predict. 



Turning to the side of supply it is apparent from latest advices that the Cuban 

 crop probably will be approximately 3,800,000 long tons. Out of this, after deducting 

 local consumption and the one-third of the crop bought by the United Kingdom 

 approximately 2,433,000 tons is statistically available to the United States. 



This supply must be further reduced by whatever amount of raws the Sugar 

 Equalization Board may authorize to be sold in Cuba to other countries. In the 

 accompanying table the figure of 75,000 tons estimated to cover such commitments 

 which represent sales sanctioned to eke out the needs of Spain, Mexico, small Euro- 

 pean nations, South American countries and other nations seeking supplies of raws, 

 is admittedly small. In all probability a much larger amount of Cubas could be so 

 disposed of, but whether any more will be sold is dependent wholly on the American 

 situation. It probably will be the policy of the Sugar Equalization Board to keep a 

 close check on such sales and to regulate them according to conditions existing in 

 this country. If the supply situation permits, possibly 200,000 tons of Cubas may be 

 disposed of to other countries. But that such an amount can be spared does not seem 

 probable from the accompanying table, in light of the belief held by most sugar 

 authorities that the consumption demand for the year will call for the use of the full 

 3,861,000 tons of sugar shown as possibly available. 



Another flexible factor in the situation is the amount of exports of refined to 

 countries other than the United Kingdom, France and Italy. These countries will 

 receive supplies of refined from the United States, but they will be manufactured 

 from Cuban raws included in the share of the crop purchase by the Royal Commission 

 and in reality represent nothing but sugars refined here on a toll basis for export. 



The figure given in this table for exports of refined to neutrals authorized to 

 date of 125,000 is not a high amount. If the supply warrants a further expansion of 

 this class of exports doubtless it will be granted, as requests from various countries 

 for considerable quantities of refined are continually being received. Like the factor 

 of sales of Cuban raws to other countries it is one under the control of the Sugar 

 Equalization Board and can always be made subservient to the requirements of the 

 American market. 



While some deviation in the crop estimates which appear in the table may take 

 place it is probable that the production indicated will be reached. If any considerable 

 falling off occurs it will involve a decrease in the indicated consumption, as other 

 sugars are not available from the restricted world's supply. It is because of this 

 possibility that the Sugar Equalization Board is closely following the sugar situation 

 in order to safeguard the supply. 



