452 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



be a success, and if I had ten years now to sell the edition, I might 

 print one thousand ; but, under this arrangement, a grave book not 

 selling one thousand in three years, or anything like it, it will never do 

 for me to print one thousand. Should it be much talked about by the 

 end of three years, there might be a rival edition, and my stock would 

 be left on my hands. Hence, how that there is this very short time in 

 which I can sell the book, I must print a smaller number — say five hun- 

 dred. But if I print five hundred, and expect to get back outlay and 

 a profit on that small number, I must charge more than I should do 

 if I printed one thousand and had time to sell them. Therefore the 

 price must be raised." In the case of a book which did turn out a suc- 

 cess, it might eventually happen that there would be a cheap edition 

 issued, and that that raised price would not be permanent ; but this 

 argument of the publisher with himself would lead him to raise the 

 price, not only of that book, but of the other grave books which he 

 published, all of which would stand in the same position of possibly 

 being successes, but not probably ; and of these, the great mass, the 

 nine out of ten that did not succeed, the price would remain higher — 

 would never be lowered. There would not only be that reason for rais- 

 ing the price : there would be a further one. If a man in the wholesale 

 book-trade, who puts down his name for a certain number of copies, 

 knows that a cheaper edition will possibly come out by and b}', the re- 

 sult will be that he will take a smaller number of copies than he would 

 otherwise do. At the beginning he may take his twenty-five or thirteen, 

 as the case may be ; but as the end of the three years is approaching 

 he will say : " No, I will not take a large number; I must take two or 

 three." Then, still further, the reader himself will be under the same 

 bias. He will say : " Well, this book is one I ought to have : I hear it 

 highly spoken of, but it is probable that there will be by and by a cheap 

 edition ; I will wait till the end of the three years." That is to say, 

 both wholesale dealers and readers would earlier stop their purchases, 

 thinking there might be a cheap edition ; and that would further tend 

 to diminish the number printed and to raise the price. 



Q, {Sir IL Holland). Might it not be that the publisher, instead of 

 entering into those calculations that you have pointed out, would con- 

 sider, knowing that other editions may appear : " What is the cheapest 

 form in which I can print this book ? What can I afford to give the 

 author consistently with bringing out the cheapest possible book, so 

 that I may be secure against any other publisher bringing out a cheaper 

 edition ? " 



A. It would be a very reasonable argument, if he knew which, out 

 of these various books of the graver kind, was going to succeed ; but 

 since nine out of ten do not succeed — do not succeed, at least, to the 

 extent of getting to a second edition — do not succeed, therefore, so far 

 as to make it at all likely that there would be a rival edition, and that 

 a cheap edition would pay, he will never argue so ; inasmuch as he 



