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SCIENCE PROGRESS 



not so well known yet to the outside public as its parent Esperanto, but 

 I, for one, feel convinced that, as time goes on, Ido must increase, while 

 Esperanto must decrease. 



I am. Sir, 



Yours faithfully, 

 July 24, 1920. Alexr. J. Smith. 



To THE Editor of " Science Progress " 



COINCIDENCE, OR CONFIRMATION ? 



A Discovery relating to Drayson's Centre of Polar Motion 



From Alfred H. Barley 



Dear Sir, — A letter appeared in the July number of Science Progress 

 pointing out the fact that Drayson calculated, half a century ago, a position 

 for the Apex of Solar Motion which agrees more closely with the latest 

 determination (igo8) than the latter does with any other ; and the infer- 

 ence was drawn, that this coincidence was due to sound astronomy and not 

 to chance. 



Since that letter was in type another coincidence has been brought to 

 light, quite accidentally, in the course of calculations made more or less 

 out of curiosity. Before relating how the discovery came about, it may 

 be useful to point out that in questions of evidence — circumstantial evidence 

 that is, — (and all vital matters concerning geological or archaeological ques- 

 tions really do rest on circumstantial evidence) ; — in all questions of circum- 

 stantial evidence where a number of items are brought forward any one of 

 which is liable to dismissal as mere coincidence not causally connected with 

 the point at issue, it is not enough for Opposing Counsel to depreciate, 

 seriatim, each separate item on this ground and then claim a judgment in 

 his favour because of the " poverty " of the evidence. The coexistence oj 

 the coincidences is itself a piece of evidence, one that requires proper examina- 

 tion and should be given due weight. The presence of a small boy in a 

 pantry may be a coincidence, his chin being smeared with jam may be another 

 coincidence, the parchment of the jampot being broken may be a third, 

 but no housekeeper would be blind to their collective significance ; and in like 

 manner the cumulative value of " side-lights " of evidence (severally of small 

 importance perhaps) gathers both mass and momentum from each addition. 



Now to the subject of the present letter. According to Drayson, the 

 Pole of the Heavens, P, traces a circle in the sky round a point C, the 

 radius of this circle being 29° 25' 47' and the period of revolution 31,756 

 years. The point C is situated 6° o' o' from E, the Pole of the Ecliptic, 

 and P, E, and C will be in alignment in a.d. 2295. These are the essential 

 details of his discovery. 



On pondering this brief statement it will be seen that the cycle of 31,756 

 years reproduces on a grand scale the main features of the common year ; 

 it has a ' summer ' and a ' winter,' a ' spring ' and an ' autumn ' — ' summer ' 

 in A.D. 2295 when the distance PE representing the obliquity is least 

 (23°-4), and ' winter ' a.d. 18172 (or 13583 B.C.) when PE is 35°-4, twelve 

 degrees greater. The four quarters of this Great Year may be shown 

 graphically thus : — 



P 



E 

 C 



(* Spring ') 



E 

 C 



(' Slimmer ') 



E 

 C 



(* Autumn ') 



E 

 C 



P 



{•Winter ') 



