19^5 



BETTER FRUIT 



Page 31 



"Then, beginning with June, a 

 niontlily estimate is made of the con- 

 dition of the apple crop as a percentage 

 of normal. These condition reports 

 have been made to the department for 

 the past quarter of a century or more. 

 Last year for the first time the bureau 

 interpreted its condition reports as a 

 forecast of production, beginning with 

 August and ending with November. 

 These forecasts or estimates of produc- 

 tion are based on the census. For in- 

 stance, our system of reporting condi- 

 tion as a percentage of normal has 

 remained practically the same since 

 the work was started, so that the fig- 

 ures for each year are strictly com- 

 parable with those of any other year. 

 The production in census years is 

 known for each state. The monthly 

 condition figures and the percentage of 

 a full crop as estimated by this bureau 

 are also known for the census years. 

 If, therefore, at the close of the season 

 the crop in 1909 was estimated to be 

 43.8 per cent a full crop, and the total 

 production for the United States as re- 

 ported bv the census for that vear was 

 146,000,000 bushels, the full crop rep- 

 resented by 100 per cent would equal 

 333,000,000 bushels. In the same man- 

 ner the normal or full crop production 

 of each state is computed. Of course 

 the normal or full crop production of 

 each state is changing constantly be- 

 cause old orchards are dying out and 

 new ones are being planted. These 

 facts are taken into consideration in 

 fixing the state normal each year. 

 Knowing the normal or full crop for 

 any state, it is a simple matter to fore- 

 cast the prospective yield from the 

 monthly estimates of condition. 



"The bureau has a number of checks 

 for use in its system of estimating. 

 Among the most useful are series of 

 tables showing ten-year averages of 

 condition reports by months, numbers 

 of bearing and non-bearing trees, yields 

 and prices. Practically all of these 

 ten-year average tables of condition 

 reports show a relatively high condi- 

 tion at the beginning of the season and 

 a relatively low condition at the close 

 of the season, showing that the condi- 

 tion as a percentage of normal steadily 

 and regularly declines from month to 

 month. The point I wish to make is 

 that if we have a condition report near 

 the close of the season which is higher 

 than the ten-year average of condition 

 reports for the same month, it may in- 

 dicate a greater yield than a higher 

 condition report earlier in the season. 

 This is exactly what happened with 

 apples in 1914. The season was so fa- 

 vorable to apples that the monthly con- 

 dition reports remained nearly the 

 same throughout the year, in some 

 cases actually becoming higher as the 

 season advanced, while in other cases 

 the decline in condition was less than 

 the ten-year average decline. Take 

 New York as an example: In .lune the 

 condition was estimated at 88 per cent 

 of normal, which was 4 per cent higher 

 than the ten-year average for that 

 month; July it was 75 per cent, a de- 



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