1.1.1 National Demand and Supply of Energy 



For 100 years the United States was blessed by an abundance of 

 petroleum resources. But in recent years our reserves have shrunk 

 drastically as our rate of consumption has surpassed our ability to 

 produce from domestic sources. Until 1948, the United States was a net 

 exporter of petroleum, but since then our consumption has exceeded 

 domestic production. At present, our nation is dependent on petroleum 

 imports for over 40 percent of our oil demand. The percentage of 

 imports is predicted to increase to over 50 percent before the end of 

 the 1970's. 



Two other factors are expected to have significant effects on 

 energy source options: (1) the percentage of imports may increase even 

 further if other fuel sources such as coal or nuclear power are produced 

 at a slower rate than predicted and, (2) more than half of the domestic 

 production of oil and gas that will be consumed during this century must 

 be derived from new and as yet unknown resource deposits. 



The Federal Energy Administration (FEA) forecasts that nuclear 

 power plants will not be built as rapidly as had been projected in the 

 past. According to FEA [1] coal production should rise by 1985, perhaps 

 exceeding 1 billion tons (compared to 639 million tons in 1974). 



Solar energy, which has been widely heralded as the new energy 

 source of the future, is expected to account for not more than 10 

 percent of the total U.S. energy supply by the year 2000 and up to 45 

 percent in 2020 according to the U.S. Energy Research and Development 

 Administration (ERDA). Other sources of energy such as wind and geo- 

 thermal are not predicted to contribute more than a few percent. 



While oil and gas may remain the dominant fuels for the next 25 

 years in the United States, their share of the total energy supply is 

 expected to drop from the present 76 percent to 59 percent by the year 

 2000, as shown in Table 1. Use of coal will remain relatively constant, 

 while both nuclear and solar DOwer should increase their shares. Table 1 

 indicates the projected ratio of the domestic energy supply sources for 

 the period 1975-2000. The projection for the year 2000 uses a recent 

 forecast by the Exxon Corporation [2] and incorporates other information 

 to predict the situation at the end of the century. 



