PRITCHETT FORMULA FOR POPULATION. 603 



There are two residuals which have abnormally large values. 

 These occur in the equations furnished by the census of iS6o and 

 the census of 1S70. The census of i860 shows a population 

 982,000 greater than the census value, while the census of 1870 

 falls 758,000 short of the computed value. The explanation of 

 these discrepancies is to be found in the effects of the civil war 

 upon the growth of population. The devastating effect of the war 

 would show itself in the census of 1870 and succeeding years. 

 This effect would be to give a value of the population in 1S70 

 much below that which would be expected. This is precisely 

 what we find to be the case, the census enumeration in that year 

 falling 758,000 below the computed value. An abnormally small 

 value in 1S70 would, of course, have its eftect upon the popula- 

 tion of succeeding decades, and would give an apparent differ- 

 ence of opposite sign to the observed population in 1S60. There 

 is, however, good reason to believe that the value of the popula- 

 tion as determined by the census in 1S70 is much smaller than 

 the population really was at that time, and there can be lit- 

 tle question that the computed value is much nearer the truth 

 than the census determination at that date. The present Super- 

 intendent of the Census, Mr. Robert P. Porter, makes the follow- 

 ing statement concerning the census of 1S70 (Census Bulletin 

 No. 13, Oct. 30, 1S90) : 



It is well known, the fact having been demonstrated by extensive and 

 thorough investigation, that the census of 1S70 was grossly deficient in 

 the southern States, so much so as not only to give an exaggerated rate 

 of increase of the population between 1S70 and 18S0 in these States, but 

 to affect very materially the rate of increase in the country at large. 



These omissions were not the fault nor were they within the control 

 of the Census Office. The census of 1870 was taken under a law which 

 the Superintendent, General Francis A. Walker, characterized as "clum- 

 sy, antiquated, and barbarous." The Census Office had no power over 

 its enumerators save a barren protest, and this right was even questioned 

 in some quarters. In referring to these omissions the Superintendent 



