A CHRONOLOGY OF SUGGESTED CAUSES 



13 



By now everyone was cycle-conscious. The present Investigation was born of this scarcity 

 in 1930. Following its inception, the birds were reported as having practically disappeared in 

 the Northwest and far North in 193.5. As though to make the work more difficult and challeng- 

 ing, an anticipated scarcity, in 1937, throughout the East, did not materiahze though the 

 numbers of birds were not up to par in 1936 in New York State. 



A CHRONOLOGY OF SUGGESTED CAUSES 



From the earliest records, the reasons for each period of starcil) has been conjectured by 

 its historians. Some, usually interpreting limited experience, have oifered a single, simple 

 solution. Others, of a more imaginative turn of mind, have submitted numbers of potential 

 explanations. The more important of these are listed here in table 1. 



Bartram", perhaps comes closer to the truth than many when he attributes the disappear- 

 ance of grouse in the "lower settlements of Pennsylvania", to the encroachment of civilization. 

 From that early date most of the recorded causes, though legion, may easily be catalogued 

 under one or more of the four "principal changes" su|)posed to beset grouse. In addition to 

 hunting, already mentioned, there were predators, bad weather and disease. Thus hunting 

 did not remain the only recorded cause for long for a scant six years later, a Mr. Brooke of 

 Maryland, in a letter to Edwards'", complained that "the great number and variety of hawks 

 in Maryland feeding on them (grouse) prevents them from increasing fast". This emphasis 

 on the effect of possible predators has held the stage as a favorite cause of decimation ever 

 since. 



Nuttall took an easy "out" in explaining their disappearance in New Hampshire, in 1831, by 

 deciding that they must have migrated. It is probable that, being somewhat of a cataloguer, 

 he was influenced by Audubon's earlier reference to migration. 



Already referred to is the newsy comment in the Rochester Daily Advertiser ascribing the 

 shortage in the partridge crop to the severe winter of 1830-31. 



Local explanations were, of course, rife after each disappearance. Dillin"" adds a new 

 note, attributing their disappearance in Pennsylvania, in 1897. to forest fires. The circum- 

 stances surrounding the issuing of Forbush's qiicslioiinaire into the effect of the severe winter 

 of 1903-04, may have strongly influenced the verdict against the extreme weather, the effect of 

 which was under investigation. 



With the phenomenon now better recognized, logical explanations became more difficult. In- 

 dividual opinions were less well received and questionnaires, therefore, came into their own 

 as a method of bringing the collective judgment of men of wide experience in the out-of- 

 doors to bear on the problem. Thus, when 1904's lean year, in certain regions, followed by 

 a partial recovery in 190.5. was in turn climaxed by a die-off of even greater proportions in 

 1906-07, New York's Forest. Fish and Game Commission employed E. Seymour Woodruff'"* to 



