384 MARINE FISHERIES OF NORTH CAROLINA 



with the ups and downs of production and movement of physical goods, the 

 other with money values, such as income, bank deposits and debits, and 

 prices. 



Goods-curve Comparisons, United States. Fig. 8 shows in the lower part 

 a number of such serial patterns, taken more or less at random from various 

 sources,*^ in the United States for the period between the two world wars, 

 1921-1940. The composite of a great many of these series representing all 

 of industry, and commonly used as indicator (goods), is shown at the top 

 as the Index of Industrial Production maintained current by the Federal 

 Reserve Board. In Fig. 9 may be compared this same index (middle curve) 

 with the physical volume of fish production of the seven regions of the 

 United States (top curve) and with that of the New England vessel land- 

 ings (bottom curve). All three curves exhibit clearly the trade cycle, at 

 minimum in the postwar depression of 192 1, maximum at the inflationary 

 boom of 1929, depression minimum in 1932 and another maximum in 1937. 

 The curve of national food fish production agrees closely with that of the 

 Index of Industrial Production (r = -{- 0.74).*^'^ The only noticeable dif- 

 ference is the absence of the sharp minimum in 192 1 (postwar depression). 

 This part of our curve is flattened out by interpolation from the war- 

 time period of few canvasses, and would undoubtedly exhibit the dip 

 (dotted) if field statistics had been available, as they were in the cases of 

 the continuous annual series of the vessel fisheries and of Canadian produc- 

 tion (Fig. 10), both of which show the 192 1 dip. The curve of New England 

 vessel landings also conforms generally to the index of industrial production 

 but, being a local component, it conforms with less fidelity than does the 

 curve of the fish production of the whole country — in which aberrations 

 from the average cancel one another out. Every region and even most of 

 the specific fisheries show the influence of the trade cycle. Fig. 4 (bottom 

 curve) represents total United States production of all fishery products, 

 food and non-food. Here we see the same pattern of the trade cycle, but 

 heavily influenced by the rapid rise of the California pilchard fishery which 

 had its origin in and shortly after World War I, and rose to great heights 

 in the 1930's, A large part of the product of this fishery serves non-food uses. 



Goods-curves, Canada and Europe. Fig. 10 shows at the bottom a pair of 

 curves for a similar comparison in Canada. The upper of these two curves 

 represents the total physical volume of all fish in Canada; the lower, the 

 Canadian Index of Industrial Production. The conformity here appears 

 convincing (r = + o.86), even better than the corresponding United States 

 curves, and does not show the same secular growth. However, Canadian 

 fish production is considerably more influenced by exports than is that of 



48. See for many of these, Standard and Poor's (1942); The Conference Board, Economic 

 Almanac; Statistical Abstract of the United States. 48-a. See footnote 51, p. 390. 



