148 



THE RATE OF GROWTH 



[CH. 



The "celebrated aphorism" of Malthus was thus, and to this extent, 

 confirmed*. In the United States, the Malthusian estimate of 

 unrestricted increase continued to be reahsed for a hundred years 

 after Malthus wrote; for the 3-93 millions of the U.S. census of 

 1790 were doubled three times over in the census of 1860, and four 

 times over in that of 1890. A capital which doubles in twenty-five 

 years has grown at 2-85 per cent, per annum, compound interest; 

 the U.S. population did rather more, for it grew at fully 3 per cent, 

 for fifty of those hundred years f. 



1790 1800 



1850 



1900 



1930 



Fig. 28. Population of the United States, 1790-1930. 



The population of the whole world and of every continent has 

 increased during modem times, and the increase is large though 

 the rate is low. The rate of increase has been put at about half-a- 

 per-cent per annum for the last three hundred years — a shade more 

 in Europe and a shade less in the rest of the world { : 



* Op. cit. 1845, p. 7. 



t Verhulst foretold forty millions as the "extreme limit" of the population 

 of France, and 6^ millions as that of Belgium. The latter estimate he increased 

 to 8 millions later on. The actual populations of France and Belgium at the 

 present time are a little more than the ultimate limit which Verhulst foretold. 



+ From A. M. Carr-Saunders' World Population, 1936, p. 30. 



