250 



THE FARxMER'S MAGAZINE. 



THE CAUSES OF THE DECLINE IN THE PRICE OF CORN. 



The continued decline in prices of grain, but espe- 

 cially wheat, has Ijegun to alarm the agriculturists, 

 some of whom consider it the prelude to a permanent 

 range of prices below what it can be produced at. 

 There are, however, many causes operating at the pre- 

 sent time to occasion this decline, which are not likely 

 to continue ; nor, some of them at least, to occur 

 again; and to tliese we are about to dii'ect the atten- 

 tion of our readers, with the view of relieving their 

 minds from apprehensions which have little foundafion 

 in facts. 



First. The wheat crop of 1857 was, beyond a doubt, 

 above an average one, probably to the extent of one- 

 fifth, taking the usual produce at 16,000,000 quarters. 

 This would make the produce of the last harvest 

 19,500,000 quarters, or about one-and-a-half million 

 quarters below the average consumption. A very large 

 portion of the crop was thrashed out in the first four 

 months of the season, so that althmigh the American 

 supplies (if both wheat and flour were withheld during 

 that period, there was an ample supply of native- 

 grown wheat, and importations enough from the Bal- 

 tic and other near ports of foreign wheat to supply any 

 deficiency that would otherwise have arisen from the 

 non arrival of the produce of the United States. 



Another minor cause is the state of the potato crop, 

 which on account of the prevalence of the disease, and 

 doubt of their keeping good in store, have been brouglit 

 to market freely, and as largely consumed by the small 

 growers instead of bread. This has materially affected 

 the consumption of the latter article since harvest; 

 but as the potatoes are rapidly being used up, the work- 

 ing classes will soon have recourse to bread again as 

 the only farinacious food, and now cheaper than pota- 

 toes. 



Thirdly, the state of the money market, which has 

 affected every other market in the kingdom, especially 

 that of corn, not only as having diminished consump- 

 tion by throwing a vast number of hands out of 

 work, and thus reducing their means for procuring food, 

 but also by inducing the millers and dealers to contract 

 their purchases to their immediate requirements, and 

 thus checking whatever disposition mi^ht otherwise 

 have existed to retain stocks of wheat and flour. 



Fourthly, the rescinding of the French decrees against 

 the exportation of grain. We have left this to the last, 

 not because of its unimportance, but because it de- 

 mands a fuller explanation than any other question 

 connected with the subject. That the late decree has 

 had a material and very natural effect upon the price 

 of wheat and flour is evident, from the course prices 

 have taken trom the very day it was promulged on the 

 corn market ; and that effect is easily accounted ior. 

 liany produce market is amply supplied, a small ex- 

 cess in permanent operation will tend to lower prices, 

 as a small permanent deficiency will have the contrary 

 effect. Now, the quantity of French wheat and flour 

 imported, and in process of being imported, into the 

 United Kingdom, is trifling compared with the con- 

 sumption, but it is in excess of the demand, and con- 

 sequently takes the place of so much native wheat, also 

 being//-es/j and of good quality. Whether the French 

 will be able to continue exporting even to the present 

 small extent is a question that remains to be solved. 

 Certain it is, however, that their own production and 

 consumption will not leave room for such an export 



trade as to make up to us the loss of the American sup- 

 ply ; and, if we may judge of the future by the past, we 

 should say that even this season they cannot continue 

 to export, without leaving themselves bare of wheat. 

 The following statement will bear us out in this 

 opinion. 



By a reference to the French official returns of ex- 

 ports and imports of grain for the last twenty-five years, 

 we find the quantity of wheat, reduced to English mea- 

 sure, to have been respectively as follows : — 

 qrs. qrs. 



Imports.... 18,485,387 or 739,415 per annum. 



Exports 10,564,913 422,996 „ 



Excess of imports 7,920,474 316,419 



The whole of these statistics are a bagatelle compared 

 with those of the United Kingdom ; but they are im- 

 portant to us, as proving that, at present at least, 

 France caimot gi-ow wheat permanently for exporta- 

 tion. Even if we take the last eleven years, which are 

 considered by the French writers on the subject to have 

 been seasons of great agricultural prosperity, we find 

 the excess of imjjorts to average still more than for the 

 above twenty-five years, being 337,764 qrs. per annum. 

 Either, therefore, the quantity grown is smaller, by a 

 contraction of the area of cultivation, or the consump- 

 tion of wheaten bread has increased in France. We 

 believe that the former has ^been'the case, for the fol- 

 lowing reasons. 



First, the continual subdivision of the land imder the 

 present law of inheritance, has a manifest tendency to 

 withdraw cultivation from cereals, and multiply 

 the kinds of produce. This is, by some of the French 

 economists, considered theglory of the system, as afford- 

 ing subsistence to a much larger population. But, 

 on the other hand, the most far-seeing men in that 

 country deprecate the system as forming a direct 

 barrier to all agricultural as well as social improve- 

 ment, whilst it keei^s the whole agricultural population 

 in a normal state of poverty incompatible with the 

 well-being of the state. A proof of this may be found 

 in the statistics of the population, which in five years, 

 from 1851 to 1856, has increased only to the extent 

 of 256,194, or rather less than three quarters per cent. 

 But the most remarkable feature in the census is, that 

 whilst the whole of France has increased only 256,194, 

 the population of Paris has increased 305,354 ; from 

 which it is evident that in the agricultural districts the 

 population is rapidly decreasing,* Paris being only the 

 type, in regard to population, of the other large cities 

 of France ; and the same process is going on in all the 

 rural districts. It appears also, by the accounts of 

 well-informed men, that it is not the very poorest of 

 the rural population that are thus fleeing from their 

 native villages, but the most intelligent and well-to- 

 do of the peasantry and mechanics of all kinds. Nor 

 is it from the increase of agricultural machinery that 

 these men are driven to emigrate, for improvements of 

 all kinds find enormous difficulties in penetrating into 

 the interior of France. Nor are the French peasantry 

 as a body able, in a pecuniary point of view, to adopt 

 such improvements, or any measures for the ameliora- 

 tion of the soil or increase of their produce. In this 



* See the article on Agriculture aud Population in another 

 colamn. 



