768 POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



tions," for if there is any one who has freely indulged in these same 

 purely speculative computations it is Mr. Davis himself, as we shall 

 presently see. 



The value of the various calculations that statisticians indulge 

 in is largely discounted by the fact that allowance is rarely made 

 for changing conditions. Such has been the ratio, such is the ratio, 

 and therefore in so many years' time such will be the ratio, is the 

 burden of their calculations, so that while their figures for the past 

 and present may be both correct and instructive, their calculations 

 for the future are frequently of little practical utility; and it is 

 this failure to allow for any variation in conditions that renders Mr. 

 Davis's figures of so little value, and Sir W. Crookes's conclusions, 

 which are based on them, of no greater importance. 



It is surprising to find how much value Sir W. Crookes attaches 

 to Mr. Davis's figures, and it leads one to the conclusion that he 

 has either not examined them very closely, or shares with Mr. Davis 

 a fondness for " purely speculative computations " ; and while it is 

 not seemly to accuse, as has been done, a man of Sir W. Crookes's 

 standing and reputation of resorting to " bucket-shop " methods 

 to support his conclusions, it is difficult to avoid thinking that the 

 anxiety to establish those conclusions has not only led him to ac- 

 cept Mr. Davis's calculations without proper examination, but has 

 also influenced the preparation of some of his antecedent data and 

 led him to subordinate facts as a means to a required end. Since 

 Sir "W. Crookes thinks so highly of Mr. Davis's figures and upon 

 them has based some of the most important conclusions of his ad- 

 dress, and as Mr. Davis himself is so ready to find fault with tile 

 calculations of others, it might be well just here to see how some 

 of Mr. Davis's own calculations have been verified and what amount 

 of dependence should be placed upon his figures or on deductions 

 from them. 



In An Epitome of the Agricultural Situation, published by 

 Mr. Davis in 1890, he predicted an annually increasing deficit in 

 the world's wheat supply and the almost immediate inability of the 

 United States to do more than grow enough wheat for home con- 

 sumption, and, as a consequence, that " After 1895 we (United 

 States) must either import brcadstuffs, cease to export cotton, or 

 lower the standard of living," this latter prophecy being empha- 

 sized by being printed in capital letters. These predictions were 

 made ten years ago — ample time, surely, for at least some evidence 

 of their fulfillment to be apparent. But what are the facts? The 

 Chief of the Bureau of Statistics, in his report on the foreign com- 

 merce of the United States for 1898, says: "The total exportation 

 of meats and dairy products amounted in the last fiscal year (1898) 



