770 POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



pies at any given time, or the average of that area for any given 

 l^eriod, must necessarily be the proportion always to be required for 

 the cultivation of those articles, and that any calculations or pre- 

 dictions made on that assumption are liable to be completely upset 

 by events unforeseen and unprovided for? Does it not seem prob- 

 able that if Sir W. Crookes had examined Mr. Davis's figures more 

 closely than apparently he did, he v^ould have found that " average 

 acre yields for long periods " are not " essential factors "; that " unit 

 requirements for each of the primary food staples of the temperate 

 zones" can not be so easily determined; that "the ratio existing 

 during recent periods between the consuming element and acres 

 employed in the production of each of such primary food staples " 

 are not necessarily indicative of the ratio that will require to exist 

 in the years to come; and that Mr. Davis's " scientific method " does 

 not " enable him to ascertain the acreage requirements of the 

 separate national populations and of the bread-eating world as a 

 whole"? 



In order to insure a famine in 1931 it was necessary for Sir W. 

 Crookes to assume a given increase of population during the inter- 

 vening period and no change in the existing conditions of wheat 

 cultivation and consumption, and also to limit by hard-and-fast 

 lines the sources of supply. It is to the manner in which Sir W. 

 Crookes has limited and underestimated the wheat resources of 

 Canada that we now propose to take exception; and it is difficult 

 to understand how, with ample means of information available, he 

 could have committed himself to the statements he has made. 

 "What does he say about Manitoba? " In the year 1897 there were 

 2,371,441 acres under cultivation in Manitoba, out of a total of 

 13,051,375 acres. The total area includes water courses, lakes, 

 forests, towns and farms, land unsuitable for wheat growing, and 

 land required for other crops." Now, the facts are that the total 

 area of Manitoba is 73,956 square miles, and if from that area 

 9,890 square miles of water surface are deducted there remain 

 64,066 square miles, or 41,002,240 acres of land, so that even after 

 making due allowance for forests, towns, etc., there are nearly 

 three times the number of acres available than are given by Sir 

 "VV. Crookes. Attempts have been made in vain to find out whence 

 these figures were obtained, but there is apparently no clew; and 

 while it is not to be supposed for a moment that the figures were pur- 

 posely misstated, surely the important conclusions drawn from them 

 deserved that some attempt at least should have been made to ascer- 

 tain their accuracy. Sir W. Crookes claims to be indebted to the 

 official publications of the Government of Canada, but it is certain 

 that none of them ever contained the figures used by him. 



