45+ THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



In 1870 the traffic of the Suez Canal was represented by 48G ships 

 of 435,911 tons, yielding a revenue of 5,159,327 francs ; in 1885 it was 

 3,624 vessels, of 8,985,411 tons, and paying 02,207,439 francs. M. 

 Levasseur, Member of the Institute, taking the statistics of 187G as a 

 basis, estimates that if the canal were ojjcn in 1889, the tonnage of 

 vessels passing through it would be 7,250,000. M. Marteau, editor of 

 the " Journal du Havre," places it at 9,000,000 tons. Both gentlemen 

 disregard the markets of the Mediterranean and of India, and send the 

 entire commerce of Western Europe through the Panama Canal during 

 the first year of its existence. Presuming a tariff of fifteen francs per 

 ton, the receipts from either estimate would not remunerate at the out- 

 set a capital exceeding 8240,000,000, when expenses of administration 

 and repair are deducted. On the 1st of last March the total sum real- 

 ized from the company's loans was $179,771,190, As a new loan has 

 since been raised, this sum must be wholly expended. It is evident 

 that the final cost will exceed the sum warranted by the estimates. 



No exact estimate of the time and money required to finish the 

 canal can be made, as much of the data needed is unknown. M. Charles 

 de Lesseps said to me : "In two years the canal will be finished from 

 Colon to kilometre forty-four, and from La Boca to Paraiso. As to 

 the Culebra, I leave you to form your own conclusions. It is a great 

 and difficult work." 



It is evident that the rate of excavation in a work of such magni- 

 tude must be small until the plant is complete ; it is equally true that 

 more work can be done in a given time with a complete installation 

 than with one of less size. Hence it is false reasoning to conclude that 

 if 32,000,000 cubic metres are excavated in five years, it will require 

 twelve years to extract the remaining 73,000,000. That such reason- 

 ing is absurd is shown by the cube of last year, which was 11,727,000 

 cubic metres. At this rate it would require about seven years to com- 

 plete the canal. It is not probable that this rate will be exceeded ma- 

 terially for a year or more. 



Keeping in mind the sum already expended, and the purposes to 

 which it was applied, it is unreasonable to presume that the final cost of 

 the canal will be less than 2,000,000,000 francs, or about 6375,000,000. 

 These figures are now acknowledged by the company ; but owing to 

 the great sacrifice at which the loans are obtained, the liabilities of the 

 company will be nearly double this amount. 



Any views concerning the completion of the canal by the present 

 company must be conjectural ; but if the present loan be expended 

 with economy, the results will enhance the prospects of success. 



At Colon there were many residents and foreigners not interested 

 in the canal. The most bitter opponents of the enterprise were Ameri- 

 cans and I^nglishmen, or former employes of the company who had 

 been discharged or had a similar grievance. But from all sources there 

 was a free admission that the company has both brains and energy, 



