THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. 467 



has occurred within comparatively recent years in these same countries. 

 Thus, the average annual death-rate m England and Wales, during 

 the period from 1838 to 1875, was 22-3 per thousand. From 1876 to 

 1880, it was 20-8. But, for the six years from 1880 to 1887, the aver- 

 age has not exceeded 19'3 ; which means that about 500,000 persons 

 in England and Wales were alive at the close of the year 1886 who 

 would have been dead if the rate of mortality which prevailed between 

 1838 and 1875 had been maintained.* The average death-rate for the 

 ■whole United States, for the census-year 1880, was between 17 and 18 

 per 1,000 ; which is believed to be a less mean rate than that of any 

 European country except Sweden. 



The results of the most recent and elaborate investigations on this 

 subject, communicated, with data, by M. Vachee, to the " Bulletin 

 de I'Institute International de Statistique," Rome, 1887, are, that the 

 mortality of Europe has diminished from 25 to 33 per cent, and that the 

 mean duration of life has increased from seven to twelve years, since 

 the beginning of this century. This estimate of the rate of improvement 

 for all Europe is higher than the English data would alone warrant, 

 but may be correct. At the same time it is well recognized, that 

 through the absence of reliable data it is impossible to speak with 

 certainty as to the decrease in mortality, or as to the expectation of 

 life in any country, except in respect to the last forty or fifty years. 



Now, while improved sanitary knowledge and regulations have 

 contributed to this result, it has been mainly due to the increase in 

 the abundance and cheapness of food products ; which in turn are 

 almost wholly attributable to recent improvements in the methods of 

 production and distribution. But whatever may have been the causes 

 of these changes, they could not have occurred without an increase of 

 vitality among the masses. 



Again, if civilization is responsible for many new diseases, civiliza- 

 tion should be credited with having stamped out, or greatly mitigated 

 not a few that a century ago were extremely formidable. Plague 

 and leprosy have practically long disappeared from countries of high 

 civilization. For the five years from 1795 to 1800 the average annual 

 number of deaths from small-pox in the city of London was 10,180 ; 

 but for the five years from 1875 to 1880 it was only 1,408. Typhus 

 and typhoid fevers are now known to be capable of prevention, and 

 cholera and yellow fever of complete territorial restriction. Typhus 

 fever, once the scourge of London, and especially of its prisons, is said 

 to have now entirely disappeared from that city. No living physician 

 has seen malignant syphilis as described in 1786 by the eminent Eng- 

 lish surgeon, John Hunter. Ansesthetics have removed the pain at- 

 tendant upon surgical operations ; and the use of antiseptics has re- 



* It is also to be noted that by far the larger proportion of the increased duration of 

 human life in England is lived at useful ages, and not at the dependent ages of either 

 childhood or old age. 



