THE MOON AND THE WEATHER. 475 



employment to dissect popular errors with a view to discovering the 

 half-truth, since we might be able to find its complement somewhere, 

 and materially enrich the world. But that is not the sense I intend 

 to convey. Nearly all weather sayings are of the nature of predic- 

 tions. They describe a certain appearance of phenomenon, and then 

 go on to say what other appearance or phenomenon may be expected 

 to follow it. "We have here a sequence of events ; the ground of the 

 saying (if it has any ground at all) is the invariability of the sequence. 

 Now it is difficult to imagine such sequences being invented without 

 any reference to the observed fact, and it is still more difficult to 

 imagine them obtaining currency — not local currency merely, but some- 

 times universal currency — unless a certain number of observed in- 

 stances have borne them out. Of course, by the laws of chances any 

 sequence within the range of probability is bound to happen some- 

 times, but a sequence of weather phenomena is liable to variation in 

 so many different directions that the purely chance happenings of any 

 specified sequence are not numerous relatively to the blanks. I am 

 disposed to assume, therefore, that all weather proverbs of this nature 

 are founded upon one observed instance ; and that, although many 

 are only based upon the accidental recurrence of the sequence (and 

 are consequently worthless), many also are the expression of a real, 

 demonstrable sequence of sufficiently frequent occurrence to afford 

 ground for the rough approximation which suffices to constitute a 

 popular weather law. 



But it does not follow that because we assume the fact of an appar- 

 ent connection between two phenomena, and predict from the mani- 

 festation of the one the approaching manifestation of the other, the 

 connection must necessarily be of the nature of cause and effect, nor 

 yet of the nature of successive effects of the same cause. There is 

 such a thing as the coincidence of phenomena. The coincidence may 

 be purely fortuitous, or it may be the result of the operation of higher 

 laws of which we as yet have no knowledge. 



We may now proceed to the more immediate subject of this article. 

 It is not ray intention to attempt to give an exhaustive collection of 

 lunar proverbs. Such collections are curious, but they are not particu- 

 larly useful. Nor do I aspire to propound any new theory of lunar 

 influence on the weather. What I do propose is to discuss a few of 

 the best known, and therefore most important, of the popular weather 

 notions in which the moon is concerned, with the view of showing the 

 necessity for discrimination in their acceptance; the ultra-scientific 

 man who pooh-poohs everything that has moon in it being really as 

 wide of the mark as the poor victim of superstition who puts double 

 faith in things on the same ground. In arranging my remarks it will 

 be convenient to deal successively with (1) lunar notions that are ut- 

 terly absurd ; and (2) those that are explicable by the aid of physical 

 principles, and are therefore rational and useful in practice. 



