EXPERIMENT STATION RECORD. 



Vol. XXXIII. November, 1915. No. 7. 



The extent to which the element of chance figures in agricultural 

 experimentation and investigation is a large one. It is at once the 

 inspiration and the distraction of the seeker after new truth. It 

 accounts for many efforts which are in part futile for the time being, 

 and for frequent negative or unenlightening results, as well as for 

 occasional findings of great significance. 



This recognition of the uncertainties in the situation is not op- 

 posed to the idea that agricultural investigation is of an exact 

 nature and is based on the best available light of the time, but it 

 expresses the groping nature of the effort, the inadequacies of meth- 

 ods, and the inability to control conditions which may be adverse to 

 a conclusive result. While these difficulties are common to other 

 branches of science, they are perhaps especially conspicuous in agri- 

 cultural experimentation and investigation, owing to the very com- 

 plex nature of the problems and the conditions under which they 

 are studied. The acknowledgment of them is not a sign of weak- 

 ness or of doubt, but rather of a clearer insight which has come with 

 the extended experience of our stations in that field. 



The very nature of research and experimentation implies the ele- 

 ment of doubt, the uncertainty as to the ultimate outcome. If there 

 were no question there would be no need for experiment. While not 

 a random effort, it involves novel and often abnormal factors and 

 conditions which can not be fully depended upon and are in part 

 undetermined. 



No one can predict the result of an experimental inquiry, or 

 prophesy as to its success. It is an attempt to find out something 

 that is not known. While it is not a leap in the dark it is an excur- 

 sion into the unknown, and the paths are not clearly charted. The 

 method of approach is suggested by analogies, but it requires some 

 adaptation to each particular case and it may prove inadequate or 

 present stumbling blocks. In that case it calls for ingenuity and a 

 careful consideration of all known facts and factors. In many in- 

 stances the successful attack of a class of problems calls for an origi- 

 nal conception as to the nature of the project and the way in which 

 it might be successfully attacked. In any event it requires close 

 application. There is a difference between working upon a question 



601 



