128 ABBE- BENJAMIN FRANKLIN AS METEOROLOGIST. [April 20 



on the ground, so that the severest cold is delayed until long after 

 December 21st. The fog of the summer of 1783 cut off the sun's 

 heat, and left the earth cold ; hence early snows were not melted ; 

 hence the cold began earlier and became more intense. If in future 

 years a similar summer fog occur, it may be safe to predict that a 

 similar cold winter will follow. 



Two years after this we find the following two letters,^ from his 

 sister, Mrs. Jane Mecom. The first is dated Boston, December 17, 

 1786: "Your predictions concerning a hard winter are beginning 

 to be verified in a formidable manner. The snow has been so deep 

 that we might have been buried alive were it not for the care of some 

 good neighbors"; and again, her letter dated March 9, 1787: 

 " Your prediction has held invariable thus far, and as it began in 

 October I don't see why it may not hold until May, for any appear- 

 ance yet to the contrary." Must we not infer from this that Frank- 

 lin had actually sent her a prediction for a cold winter beginning 

 with October, 1786? The letter by him containing this prediction 

 has not yet been found, but we may be sure that when found it will 

 have in it nothing of planetary meteorology and nothing but strictly 

 logical conclusions based on some well-established facts. I am hunt- 

 ing for this lost letter, but meanwhile I add to the laurel that crowns 

 him another leaf, as the pioneer of the rational long-range fore- 

 casters, and of the physical meteorologists who will, undoubtedly, in 

 the future develop this difficult subject. 



^ These were first published at page 151 of the "Letters to Benjamin 

 Franklin from his family and friends, 1751-1790," "author, W, D."; published 

 by C. B. Richardson, 348 Broadway, New York, 1859. These letters had 

 passed from William Temple Franklin to Dr. Franklin Becke. 



