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Northern Manufacturers Meet 



The quarterly meeting of the Northern Hemlock and Hardwood 

 Manufacturers' Association took place at the Hotel Pfister, Mil- 

 waukee, on Tuesday, October 22. Following the regular routine of 

 opening, Secretary R. S. Kellogg read his report as follows: 



Secretary's Eeport 



It is very interesting to compnro conditions at this time with those 

 which existed when we met here a year ago. During the year then 

 drawing to a close, business had been of strictly a hand-to-mouth char- 

 acter, and on a most limited scale. Four years of depression had run 

 their course and left their baleful influence behind. The lower grades of 

 lumber were being marketed throughout the country at several dollars 

 per thousand less than the cost of production, and in many cases there 

 was not suflicient margin on the higher grades to bring the average up 

 to a profitable point. Production had been in excess of the demand for 

 lumber, and a buyer's market had prevailed throughout. Some rays of 

 hopes were visible, however, and although most of us did not realize it 

 until afterward, a business revival had actually begun at the very time 

 we were meeting here. Starting with the coming into the market on a 

 large scale by the railroads for material whose purchase could no longer 

 be delayed, the influence spread until for several months past we have 

 been in the midst of a general trade revival. The results are evident 

 in the figures which are presented for your consideration to-day. 



CUT AND SHIPMENTS JANUARY 1 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 1912 AND 1911. 



The following comparison of cut and shipments from Jan. 1 to Sept. 



30 this year and last is based upon reports from the same firms in the 

 corresponding months : 



Hardwoods 



Cut, M ft. Shipped, M ft. 



1912. 1911. 1912. 1911. 



January 14.6fi6 15,396 13,733 12,369 



February 24,794 21,405 ' 18,439 12,250 



March 29,907 31,456 19,413 13,543 



April 28,544 33,293 18,921 13.804 



May 20,643 28,644 18,423 13,077 



June 17,620 26,519 20,703 19,118 



July 13,645 16.411 21,731 17,263 



August 11,135 13,664 29,136 22,555 



September 8,188 9,244 21,588 20,855 



169,142 196,032 182,087 144,834 



Decrease in hardwood cut, 14 per cent. 

 Increase in hardwood shipments, 26 per cent. 



Reports from forty-five representative firms show a decrease of 48 per 

 cent in unsold hardwoods on hand as compared with a year ago. 



LOGGING OPERATIONS 



Excellent reports upon log input and woods wages have been received 

 from seventy-one representative firms throughout Wisconsin and northern 

 Michigan. 



LOG INPUT 



The log input of the reporting firms last season and the logging planned 

 for this winter compare as follows : 



Hardwood, 

 Mft. 



Logged 1911-12 200.304 



Expect to log 1912-13 239,797 



WOODS WAGES 



Average woods wages per month including board at present compare 

 as follows with reports in October, 1911 : 



1912. 1911. 



Choreboys .$28.50 .^26.00 



Swampers 29.30 26.40 



Roadmen ,„ 29.10 27.40 



Cookees 30.80 29.00 



Saw.vers 32.90 29.80 



Hookmen 34.20 31.30 



Teamsters 34,20 31.40 



Barnmen 34.50 31.90 



Top loaders 37.80 34.80 



Blacksmiths 55.90 56.50 



Cooks 00.50 64.75 



Engineers 08.20 73.00 



STATISTICS 



Reports upon logging operations last fall indicated a decrease in log 

 input during the winter of 10 per cent compared with the previous year 

 which was confirmed by reports received in the spring after most firms 

 had finished their woods work. The correctness of this estimate is fur- 

 ther proved by the monthly statements which show a decrease in hem- 

 lock and hardwood production of 10 per cent from Jan. 1 to Oct. 1, 1912, 

 compared with the same period in 1911, On the other hand, an in- 

 crease in shipments of 31 per cent during this period amply proves the 

 reality of the business revival, and tells clearly of a great shortage in 

 lumber stocks. This is still further emphasized by the reports of dry 

 stocks on hand unsold Oct. 1 this year and last. Decreases of 37 per 

 cent in hemlock, 58 per cent in ash, 44 per cent in basswood, 39 per cent 

 in birch, 67 per cent in elm, and 57 per cent in maple, or of 40 per cent 

 in hemlock and hardwoods combined, are suflicient answer to any inquiry 

 as to why lumber prices have advanced so sharply this year. 



Inquiring into the probable log input this winter, we find that the 



—so- 



present intention is to log but 10 or 15 per cent more hemlock and hard- 

 woods than was logged last winter, while there will be a heavy decrease 

 in pine, owing to the exhaustion of timber supply. JIany factors, of 

 course, will arise to influence the actual log input as compared with the 

 estimates now, and while some firms log the year around, and are in a 

 condition to take quick advantage of market changes, the majority still 

 continue to log and saw in the old fashioned way, so in view of possible 

 unsatisfactory weather conditions and shortage of labor, it is not likely 

 that the input this winter will exceed the amount now planned for. 



There is a general belief that woods wages will be considerably higher 

 this winter than last — some firms even saying that the increase will be 

 as much as $5.00 per month. However, the average of all reports re- 

 ceived indicates an increase of about 10 per cent for the common classes 

 of labor, with little or no increase for the higher paid classes of black- 

 smiths, cooks and engineers. While it may cost more to feed men this 

 winter because of the highest known prices for beef, this will be offset 

 by cheaper hay and grain for horse feed. There may be a more abundant 

 labor supply later in the season that will reduce wages somewhat, but 

 with the present general industrial activity, no .super-abundance of labor 

 is likely to appear for some time to come. 



COMMITTEE ACTIVITIES 



Since our meeting in Houghton, July 24, the various association activ- 

 ities have gone steadily forward. The railroad committee, through its 

 traffic expert, has presented a brief to the Interstate Commerce Commis- 

 sion in the transit rate case, and an opinion from the commission may 

 be expected soon. It is possible that this may be of such a nature as to 

 call for further action on our part. 



Pursuant to instructions, the committee on grades and information 

 met with the grading rules committee of the Michigan Hardwood Manu- 

 facturers' Association in Chicago on Sept. 19 and agreed upon recom- 

 mendations for changes in the hardwood rules that have been submitteii 

 to all members and will be further discussed to-day by the chairman of 

 the committee, Mr. Quinlan. 



The advertising campaign for birch and hemlock began on Oct. 1 as 

 authorized by the association, and the results to date will be reported 

 by the chairman of the committee, Mr. McCullough. 



CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE 



Reports of prosperity come from ever.v section of the lumber producing 

 field. The advances of from $1.00 to $4.00 per thousand feet in the prices 

 of the various grades of hemlock and hardwoods have been duplicated in 

 practically every prominent wood. An exceptionally well informed lum- 

 berman computed that from Jan. 1 to Sept. 1 the advance in northern 

 pine grades had ranged from .$.50 to $3.00 per thousand, in yellow pine 

 from $1.50 to $4.00, in coast fir from $2.00 to $4.50, and in Idaho tim- 

 ber from $.50 to $3.00. Since this compilation was made, still further 

 advances have taken place. Nowhere in the lumber field is there now 

 much, if any, surplus of stock — in fact, the shortages far overbalance 

 the surpluses. Neither is there any indication of serious overproduction 

 of lumber for at least a year. 



GENERAL CONDITIONS 



Nineteen hundred and twelve will go down in history as a presidential 

 .year, which, contrary to all precedents, brought increasingly better gen- 

 eral business conditions with each succeeding month. The business re- 

 vival which began at the first of the year has been supplemented by 

 record breaking crops which are bringing remunerative prices to the pro- 

 ducer, and which will carry the tide of prosperity well into 1913. For- 

 eign trade is the largest ever known. The steel mills have on their 

 books five months business at full capacity, and pig iron prices have at 

 last advanced in commensuration with the earlier advances of the finished 

 product. Railroad operations are also beginning to show a healthy gain 

 in net profit. All this is simply part of the natural reaction from the 

 preceding period of depression that is bound to continue for some time 

 to come. There is an abundance of room for healthy growth and expan- 

 sion in many lines, and it is to be hoped that the activity now manifest 

 will not outgrow proper bounds and become a boom which may later be 

 punctured. At this time, we can do no better than to repeat the admoni- 

 tion made a year ago — "Say nothing and saw wood — only don't saw too 

 much." 



The report of the treasurer showed a total on hand October 21, 



1912, $8,605.68. There were paid out on vouchers $4,733.64, which, 

 with miscellaneous expense, made a total of $5,249.97. The net 

 balance on hand October 21, allowing for balance in bank and 

 vouchers not paid, was $3,355.71. 



M. J. Quinlan, reporting for the grades committee, told of his 

 committee having met with a sirnilar committee from the Michigan 

 Hardwood Manufacturers ' Association relative to proposed changes 

 in grading rules on northern hardwoods. Mr. Quinlan pleaded for 

 more general moral support from the members, asking them to e.\- 

 press to the members of the committee their opinion regarding this 

 important question. He asked for a roll call vote on the sentiment 



