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Vol. XLVII 



CHICAGO, JULY 10, 1919 



No. 6 



Review and Outlook 



4(J 



General Market Conditions 



THE CERTAIN FUTUKE of the furniture market as thoroughly 

 established by sales at the July furniture shows; the increas- 

 ing importance of the musical trade as a hardwood consuming fac- 

 tor due to greatly expanded sales of musical instruments here and 

 abroad; the rapidity with which the building situation is hitting 

 its stride all over the country, are constantly bringing about a 

 greater certainty of permanence in hardwood values which con- 

 tinue very rapidly upward. It has been intimated iu some cases 

 that saw mills are so anxious to produce that the time could not 

 be far distant when tlie great volume of production would catch up 

 with supply and create again a condition of over-stocks. It is true 

 that saw mill operators are exceedingly anxious to produce lumber 

 as the demand is so far in excess of supply that even old customers 

 are compelled not only to wait, but in many cases to go without the 

 goods they actually need. 



The volume of manufacturing iu tlie Aorth is still radically behind 

 normal cut, in fact, is as much as from fourteen to fifteen per cent 

 off of production as compared to the same period last year. In the 

 South an even more serious curtailment continues with continued 

 difficulty in getting the logs to the mills and securing proper 

 quantity and quality of labor. Here regardless of the millman's 

 desire to manufacture in large quantities, natural conditions are 

 compelling him to restrict his output with the result that there is 

 no prospect of a change in stock situation for as long ahead as it 

 is safe to predict. 



The chief danger in the present situation is that prices may go 

 high enough so that the very excessiveness will create an economic 

 stumbling block in the way of progress for the industry. Such de- 

 velopments have occurred in the past and might occur again. It is 

 highly desirable, therefore, that some effort be made to create stable 

 markets thereby enabling the manufacturing consumer to know his 

 costs and the manufacturing producer to figure his business on a 

 more intelligent basis. 



As matters stand today, the sale of any kind of hardwood lumber 

 that is not alread.v bought is a most precarious undertaking as 

 prices not only change overnight, but frequently advance so rapidly, 

 almost from day to day, as to make it absolutely impossible to clear- 

 ly foretell what may be expected from one week to the other. 



The lower grades continue to be the only items on the list to show 

 any dragginess wliatever, and until labor troubles and marketing 

 difficulties are overcome in the box business, this condition will 

 probably hold. Prospects, however, seem good for an early 

 .straightening out of labor troubles, and it may be expected that 



with growing business in all lines of endeavor, tlie box trade will 

 shortly recover from the reaction following cessation of war busi- 

 ness and getting back to normal time again. 



In the hardwood markets in general the export demand is play- 

 ing a more important part gradually as increasing facilities are 

 provided for the shipment of American hardwoods to Europe. 

 Buyers abroad have gone through the same period of hesitancy in 

 placing orders because of excessive prices asked, seemingly having 

 concluded that they were being treated unfairly in the matter. 

 Evidence indicates, though, that the}' have come to realize that 

 the figures American hardwoods now command are based on a real 

 question of manufacturing cost and sujiply and demand, and actual 

 orders will be coming through iu better shape. Also with im- 

 provement iu shipment and a somewhat better position so far as 

 ocean rates are concerned, the movement out of the country can be 

 expected to develop considerably and show more influence from 

 mouth to mouth on domestic markets. 



Taken altogether there probably was never a time in the history 

 of the lumber business when there was such an opportunity as 

 faces the lumberman today if he is able to supply lumber to sell. No 

 man can make money regardless of the price of the commodity if he 

 cannot secure sufficient quantity to dispose of at a profit, but for a 

 man who has lumber for sale the opportunity certainly is here. 

 Unless lumbermen defeat their own cause tlirough letting the market 

 run away from them, tlie present prosperous condition should hold 

 for a good manj- months in the future. 



A Question of Industrial Relations 



LUMBERMEN OF THE NOETHWEST have gotten some rather 

 undersirable publicity of late due to a conference between the 

 famous Mayor Olson of Seattle and certain large employers in and 

 around Chicago. From the report of the conference it appeared 

 that Mayor Olson attributed a good deal of the I. W. W. agitation 

 and tendency toward bolslievisra in the northwest to the fact that 

 employing lumbermen disregarded the social conditions and the 

 home and industrial surroundings of their employes. Employes and 

 their families lived under extremely undesirable conditions and 

 migrated around from mill to mill, unable to find surroundings that 

 were congenial or conducive to contentment. The agitators 

 recognized this condition as providing a fertile field and through 

 all kinds of promised reform and better conditions were able to 

 gain a permanent foothold in the lumbering district of the noi-th- 

 west. 



It can not be denied that in manv eases the conditions under 



