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Copyright, The Hardwood Company, 1919 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging, Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the 10th and 2Sth of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker, Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell, Technical Editor 



Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn St., CHICAGO 

 Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087 



Vol. XLVII CHICAGO, SEPTEMBER 10, 1919 No. 10 



General Market Conditions 



DIFFERENT VERSIONS of the market situation are marked by 

 more or less inconsisteueies or rather differences of opinion which 

 are, however, confined mainly to questions of demand and prices. A 

 close survey of the whole evidence, though, leaves the firm conviction 

 that not only is demand maintaining a volume strong enough to take 

 care of offerings, but also that many buyers are beginning to be gen- 

 uinely worried over the probability of difficulty in covering aU their 

 needs. The equally strong conviction exists that while there has been 

 some little juggling in the price levels, anything approaching lowering 

 prices has been merely the shading off of excessively high peaks that 

 have jutted up here and there and the still further coming to a straight 

 line of value enabling both the seller and buyer to figure more accu- 

 rately on business. 



For the first time in many mouths it can be said that hardwood mills 

 as a whole are now cutting an amount approximately equal to ship- 

 ments, but the condition still remains as before so far as stocks on 

 hand are concerned. It will be some months yet, even considering that 

 demand has not increased over present consumption, before improved 

 manufacturing conditions will make possible a complete catching up 

 of production and shipments. When that condition has arrived there 

 will still remain several mouths before the badly depleted mill stocks 

 can be properly filled out and then must be added a period of drying 

 so that it is at least six to eight months in the future before anything 

 approaching normal stocks on hand may be expected. 



A very clear birdseye of the condition at large is seen in a recent 

 government report on lumber cut for 1918. During that year prac- 

 tically all lumber production was concentrated on special war orders 

 which for the most part would not have application in commercial work 

 and which also to a very large extent were shipped out in green 

 condition. During that year the cut was some 20 per cent less than 

 normal and thus as a large proportion of the commercial lumber held 

 over from 1917 was cleared out during that year and as there was a 

 very small percentage of production of commercial lumber during 1918, 

 the trade went into the year 1919 with practically no stocks of com- 

 mercial lumber. Everybody knows the history of manufacturing con- 

 ditions the first half of this year — actual production has been steadily 

 falling behind rather than catching up to demand which has sho^vn 

 tremendous swelling in the volume of growth ever since the early 

 spring months. The whole answer to the present situation is contained 

 in that condition. Today stability is gradually being brought about 

 out of chaos through efforts on the part of manufacturers to produce 

 enough to take care of their trade and through a genuine desire on the 



part of manufacturers, sellers and consumers that stability be brought 

 about. 



As stated, demand has kept up at a rate fully capable of taking 

 care of any expansion in production and in the face of the fact that 

 several large factors were either extremely tardy in getting started in 

 purchasing or have not yet started. It has been pointed out that rail- 

 road buying could not possibly go any lower. Therefore, there is in 

 the future the prospect of a very large volume of buying for railroad 

 consumption. Also, while building has progressed, practically the 

 whole amount of construction actually put under way this year is but 

 a drop in the bucket compared to the absolute requirements of the 

 housing conditions in this country. This requirement is not merely 

 for new homes to be put up for people who wish to establish them- 

 selves in new buildings or who are just starting housekeeping, but the 

 standard of living has during the past few years been vastly improved 

 m this country, due to education, agitation and higher wages, and 

 millions and millions of people in the so-called working classes are 

 demanding new homes or extensive additions and improvements to older 

 structures. If things had continued on the old basis the population at 

 large would have been contented with normal output of new struc- 

 tures, but now on top of this will come a tremendous volume of addi- 

 tions and improvements that will vastly swell the total of building 

 construction. As a matter of fact it is this feature of building which 

 has been responsible for a great deal of the volume of new building 

 undertaken in the last few months. 



On the other hand, the trade is confronted with the question as to 

 what will be the effect of the catastrophy to the export market. It 

 was reported in the last issue and elsewhere in this issue that the for- 

 eign market has been practically shot to pieces by big accumulation 

 of consignment shipments, and the prospects are not good for an early 

 opening up of the foreign market on a large buying basis. Hardwood 

 Record is inclined to the belief that this situation abroad is not going 

 to back up on the domestic market to anywhere near the extent that is 

 believed in some quarters. The situation in this country is too strong 

 to permit of any such developments for a number of months in the 

 future at least, and it is anticipated that by that time things will have 

 straightened out appreciably on the other side and a certain measure of 

 increased business and relief may be looked for from foreign quarters. 

 In addition important domestic markets such as construction business, 

 railroads and other industrial lines can be looked to for a substantial 

 opening up possibly before that period. Inasmuch as the domestic 

 market is taking care of practically the whole output under present 

 radically strong conditions, there is no reason to fear for the imme- 

 diate future nor to expect that the domestic market will not be again 

 equal to the emergency if it arises within the next half year. 



