Vol. XLVII. 



Chicago, May 10, 1919 



No. 2 



General Market Conditions 



THIS MARKET REPORT will be very brief because this same 

 issue contains a detailed analysis of hardwood stock figures, 

 market tendencies and price indications which cover the question 

 in a more comprehensive way than would a short analysis of these 

 items. This report appears on pages 20c-20d. 



The facts of the matter are that prices are not merely tending 

 upward, but are actually advancing on many hardwood items. 

 Broadly speaking, the cut this year is very low, the movement of 

 dry stocks to purchasers is getting larger every day and the reser- 

 voir of dry stocks is rapidly diminishing. Buyers of hardwoods 

 will soon have no choice as to whether they should place orders or 

 postpone purchases. The man who waits will be confronted with 

 not only higher cost but with a very real doubt as to whether he 

 can get at all many of the items that he needs. 



Value of Expectations 



WHO IS ABLE TO CAPITALIZE EXPECTATIONS and say 

 what they are worth? It depends upon what basis there is 

 for the expectations, and how strong the expectations are. 



At the present time all lumbermen and other workers and deal- 

 ers in wood in its commercial forms, are looking for a revival of 

 business; they are expecting it to happen. That note is sounded 

 in speeches and addresses in meetings, gatherings and conventions 

 where lumbermen get together to exchange views and give or re- 

 ceive advice. It is the alpha and omega of nearly all professional 

 papers read in such meetings. It is the burden of most conversa- 

 tion on business matters between men who are interested in 

 similar things. It is the main thought in trade journal leaders 

 where editors and experts express their opinions. Optimism is ex- 

 pressed in words and is published in the hope that it will do good. 



But how much good will result? And in what way may that good 

 be expected to come? 



An enthusiastic member of a women 's foreign missionary society 

 read a paper at one of their meetings, and spoke in glowing terms 

 of the need for workers and of the glories of self-sacrifice for the 

 good of the cause; and she closed with this: "But if anybody 

 asks me to let my daughter go as a missionary into those dangerous 

 lands, I must ask to be excused." 



The good sister was unwilling to practice what she was preach- 

 ing. Possibly something similar may be happening in the affairs 

 of lumbermen who preach about improvement, progress, and re- 

 vivals in the lumber business. Possibly there is a disposition to 



wait for somebody else to make the start. If all activity is con- 

 fined to the expression of expectations, and nobody is willing to 

 lead off with a real start, it may well be questioned whether expec- 

 tations have much value. The man who adds to his factory, starts 

 his sawmill, lets the contract for building a house, orders material 

 to build a barn, a silo, or a fence, is capitalizing his expectations 

 much faster than is the man who confines his activities to giving 

 advice and expounding economic principles. 



Lumber Production in 1917 



THE GOVERNMENT HAS PUBLISHED OFFICIAL FIGURES 

 showing the production of lumber in the United States in 1917. 

 No great surprises were brought out, though some of the conditions 

 differed from any in former years. 



The output was the smallest since 1899, the number reporting 

 mills the smallest since 1905, and the mill yard value of the lumber 

 was higher than in any former year. The actually reported cut 

 was 33,000,000,000 feet, the estimated cut 36,000,000,000. The 

 difference of 3,000,000,000 feet between the reported and the esti- 

 mated production is accounted for by the unreported mills. The 

 reported mills in 1917 numbered 16,420, and the number reported in 

 1909 was 46,584. If there were as many mills in the country in 

 1917 as eight years earlier, it means that the mills in 1917 which 

 were not reported totaled about 30,000, and that scarcely more 

 than one in three was heard from during the compilation of the 

 1917 statistics of lumber production. 



No one really knows how many sawmills were in the country in 

 1917; but if 30,000 were left out of the count, or any considerable 

 part of that number, most of them were very small and their 

 omission from statistics was not a great loss. The bulk of the 

 lumber is cut on large mills, and these have not been omitted from 

 the count. About 900 of the reporting mills cut 10,000,000 or more 

 feet each during the year; and 450 others produced 5,000,000 feet 

 or more each; while more than 2,350 cut 1,000,000 or upwards feet 

 each. The small mills look important when counted individually, 

 but the country's lumber comes principally from the large mills. 



The lumber census which has just been published was compiled 

 by different branches of the Forest Service, the New York Con- 

 servation Commission, and by the National Lumber Manufacturers' 

 Association. 



No one will express surprise that the average mill yard value of 

 lumber was higher in 1917 than ever before; but many will learn 

 with surprise that the value was not much higher. The general 



