May lU, 1919 



HARDWOOD RECORD 



20c 



Lumber Buyers Wake Up! 



The followiug digest of the hardwood stock situation is pre- 

 sented for the sole purpose of revealing to hardwood lumber buyers 

 the truth and of convincing bu.yers that further delay in cover- 

 ing up on hardwood lumber needs involves a two-fold peril to them. 

 In the first place there is not the remotest possibility that lumber 

 prices in general will go lower, and in the second place the very 

 pronounced short cuts of hardwoods during the past winter coming 

 on top of badly broken mill stocks, actually threaten such a short- 

 age in some items that they will undoubtedly be off the market. 



There is no design whatsoever behind this article to bull the 

 hardwood market. The inevitable tendency will be upward re- 

 gardless of what anyone says and bullish propaganda will not in- 

 fluence that trend. This analysis of the stock situation is purely 

 and simply for the purpose of advising the buying trade correctly 

 as to what it may expect within the next few months. 



Every item and figure instanced in this report is authentic and 

 comes from a close and official record of actual sales, shipments 

 and stock reports. Eegardless of any other influences that should 

 be reckoned with, this statement of existing hardwood stocks 

 gives an accurate basis for figuring a comparison of supply and 

 demand. The lumber buj'ers in each group know what their own 

 demand is, but they must take into consideration the activities 

 in other fields in forming their conclusions as to whether or not 

 lumber will be cheaper or easier to get. 



A broad glimpse of the hardwood buying industries shows that 

 the furniture trade is very brisk, sales are excellent, accumulated 

 stocks are moving out rapidly and factory yards are not over- 

 supplied with hardwood lumber. The musical instrument business, 

 including pianos and talking machines primarily, is in excellent 

 condition, the talking machine business particularly developing 

 with great strides. Here again war restrictions on shipments cut 

 down stocks of raw materials, and for the most part the lumber 

 yards of the manufacturers of pianos and phonographs are not 

 unduly well supplied. 



The demand for agricultural implements and vehicles of all 

 kinds, in which vast quantities of hardwoods are being used, is 

 holding up in a thoroughly satisfactory manner. Hence the de- 

 mand for the hardwoods going into these products is not only 

 holding well but showing specific improvement from month to 

 month. Here again the average stocks are rather below normal 

 and the tendency is to cover up on future requirements. The auto- 

 mobile industry is just getting into its stride and plans for this 

 year on the part of the more important companies contemplate a 

 vastl.y increased output necessitating immensely greater quantities 

 of hardwood lumber. 



Another factor is involved in the automobile industry which in 

 past years has not been of so much importance, namely, rapidly 

 developing popularity of the permanent, year-round top in which a 

 great deal more wood is used than in the ordinary auto body. 

 Furthermore, the fitting of new tops, the matter of repairs and new 

 equipment for used cars, is of growing importance and here again 

 the demand is going to show a decided increase. The immense 

 development in the truck industry, which is just starting, will be 

 an increasing outlet for hardwood stocks from now on. Thus, the 

 auto industry as a whole not only has an immense present in- 

 fluence on hardwood movements, but has a tremendously increased 

 potential value as a hardwood market. 



With these primary industries showing so favorably, the move- 

 ment of hardwood is holding up in remarkable fashion. 



During the past two years the lumber business has maintained a 

 reasonably substantial position with practically no support from 

 the building trades. This in spite of the fact that in the past 

 years the building industry has used a very large percentage of all 

 the lumber produced. Lumber buyers must carefully reckon the 



fact that if the lumber industry has held up so well without the 

 support of the building field, the rejuvenation of building activity 

 is going to accelerate the movement of lumber and the price thereof 

 much more rapidly than if the lumber trade had really been suf- 

 fering for the want of this building demand. In other words, the 

 sale of lumber for building purposes, which is now beginning to 

 develop in substantial quantities, is going to be pure velvet on top 

 of an already strong market and is going to increase the firmness 

 of lumber far more than would be indicated by the actual per- 

 centage of sales in the building field. In considering the effect of 

 building upon lumber movements the essential thing is not what 

 percentage of building work has been resumed, but how far can 

 the lumber industry go in meeting this building demand on top of 

 a practical 100 per cent demand from other growing industries? 



These are basic and essential factors to take into consideration 

 in developing a policy regarding lumber purchases. Already many 

 representative lumber buyers are beginning to go into the field and 

 purchases to cover requirements for six or eight months ahead are 

 not uncommon. 



Lumber manufacturers have during recent months earnestly ad- 

 vocated that their customers fill their hardwood needs in anticipa- 

 tion not of lower prices, but of higher prices. The idea for the 

 most part has been scouted by consumers who now, however, are 

 coming to realize that the lumberman's assertions were sincere 

 and that increases in selling costs were inevitable. In the first 

 place, it is a matter of record that the price of lumber has not 

 increased in proportion to the rising cost of producing it. This is a 

 matter of history, and further taking the matter as it now stands, 

 this cost is going to further increase. Eegardless of reports of 

 unemployment, the true facts of the case are that in many sec- 

 tions manufacturers are unable to get labor they actually require 

 to run on a proper basis. In many sections strikes or pressure of 

 other kinds by employes or voluntary action conceded necessary 

 by employers, is increasing the compensation to the workman. 

 Important developments in this line have materialized as late as 

 within the last week. Thus the employer is not in a more ad- 

 vantageous position regarding his men, but still has to face the 

 problems resulting from increased wages and decreased efficiency. 



No manufacturer in any line needs to doubt-that the problems 

 he faces involving this question must be faced by manufacturers 

 in every other line. Thus every woodworker may be certain that 

 industrial and labor questions which he must solve are having an 

 equally important bearing upon the man who produces the raw 

 materials he buys. No one can safely expect that with an extended 

 period of exceedingly high taxes facing us, there is any immediate 

 chance of materially decreasing the cost of anything. This tax 

 question is not merely an annoying incident, but is an all-important 

 factor that must be taken into consideration in selling prices. 

 Employers are pretty generally sold on the idea that any attempt 

 to decrease wages in the face of these taxes and of the added 

 burden of existence on the part of the wage earner would be in- 

 dustrial suicide. 



All of these considerations must be taken into account. In them- 

 selves they are sufficient to convince almost anyone that it is 

 foolish to expect a lower price on raw material, but the answer 

 will be so clear as to be indisputable when the true statistics cov- 

 ering hardwood cut, stocks and movement are analyzed. Here are 

 authentic statements: 



Covering Wisconsin and upper Michigan territory, the cut and 

 shipments as compiled on March 1, 1919, for the previous twelve 

 months show: 



Shipments of ash exceeded the cut by more than 4,000,000 feet. 

 Shipments of basswood exceeded the cut by 12,000,000 feet. 

 Shipments of birch exceeded the cut by 11,000,000 feet. 



