20d 



HARDWOOD RECORD 



May 10, 191!> 



Shipments of elm exceeded the cut by 5,000,000 feet. 

 Shipments of maple exceeded the cut by 4,000,000 feet. 

 Shipments of hemlock exceeded the cut by 75,000,000 feet. 

 In this territory there are practically no dry stocks of ash on 

 hand in any of the thicknesses in No. 2 common and better, and 

 very little No. 3 common. The same applies to dry rock elm, 

 while the amount of dry soft elm on hand is very small, especially 

 in 4/4 and 5/4. The amount of dry soft maple on hand in all 

 thicknesses is negligible. 



On March 1, 1918, eighty-three per cent of the manufacturers in 

 this territory showed less than 400,000 feet of No. 2 common and 

 better dry ash in all thicknesses, and but 550,000 feet of 4/4 and 

 thicker of No. 3 common. This is out of a cut of ash of over 

 8,000,000 feet by the same factors in. the manufacturing trade. 

 In spite of this the shipments were over 12,000,000 feet by the same 

 parties. 



Bock elm showed on March 1, 1919, approximately 1,000,000 feet 

 of No. 2 common and better in all thicknesses in the hands of the 

 same percentage of the trade and about 600,000 feet of No. 3 com- 

 mon, while soft maple showed about 1,250,000 feet of No. 2 com- 

 mon and better in all thicknesses and 300,000 feet of No. 3 common 

 in the same group on the same date. 



Basswood shipments were over 50,000,000 feet with about 40,- 

 000,000 feet cut in ninety-one per cent of trade in this territory. 

 The stock on hand March 1 in the hands of eighty-three per cent 

 of the membership in that territory showed about 10,000,000 feet 

 of dry No. 2 common and better, and about 4,000,000 feet of No. 3. 

 Every one of the woods above mentioned is in exceptionally 

 strong demand with rising markets and little hope of increasing 

 stocks. 



The movement of birch in the past sixty days has liicked up very 

 much on all thicknesses, there being a particularly good demand 

 for No. 1 common and better, which indicates that the portion of 

 the grade that has been slow for the past two years is picking up 

 very materially in markets formerly using the better grades. This 

 indicates a very healthy future condition for the better grades of 

 birch. It can be confidently expected that birch within the next 

 few months is going to play a very important part in automobile 

 body construction. The demand in this field is so excessive that 

 the woods normally used will not be sufldcient and the offerings of 

 thick birch are going to be called upon more and more for this 

 purpose. 



The complete shut-down of the flooring factories during the past 

 two years has resulted in a slow market for hard maple, although 

 the total of hard jjnd soft maple shipped up to March 1 was 121,- 

 000,000 feet against 117,000,000 feet during the preceding twelve 

 months. There is no surplus of hard maple regardless of the fact 

 that this has been a rather backward item. In fact, on March 1 

 the total accumulation among the manufacturers above referred to 

 •was approximately 16,000,000 feet of No. 2 common and better as 

 against 10,000,000 feet of No. 3. This reckoning to date as of 

 March 1 has been very largely reduced since then. The offerings 

 today are becoming rapidly exhausted. There has been a much 

 better demand for all grades of maple, especially No. 2 common 

 and better. Since the opening up of a number of the large floor- 

 ing plants vpithin the last two months the demand for flooring is 

 exceptionally good and is undoubtedly going to increase vastly in 

 the months to come. 



Covering the Michigan situation, we have an equally clear-cut 

 indication of a strong hardwood market. The stock report from 

 all Michigan manufacturers as of April 1, 1919, indicates a stock on 

 band 30,000,000 feet less than on that date last year, and sub- 

 stantially less than on hand October 1, 1918. Considering that the 

 winter season is the season of greatest manufacturing activity, 

 when the accumulation of the year's cut piles up, the fact that 

 the stock on hand April 1 is only 10,000,000 feet more than January 

 1, 1919, shows the extremely strong movement outward of dry 

 •stock. This shrinkage of stock is largely in No. 2 common and 

 better, although there has been an appreciable shortage in No. 3 

 ■common. Sixty-five per cent of the stock on hand is rejiresented 



by the No. 2 common and better maple and this item is 16,000,000 

 feet or fifteen per cent less on hand than one year ago. 



With the winter's out now very largely lined up an authentic 

 and accurate report of production for 1919 indicates 15,000,000 

 feet less than the actual production for 1918. The logical ques- 

 tion inspired by these Michigan figures is that considering the 

 industry has passed through several lean years as far as com- 

 mercial consumption is concerned, what is the possibility of the 

 manufacturer adequately taking care of the normal demand in 

 view of the present supply, the rapid increase in markets and 

 forecast of a substantial reduced output during the present year? 

 In the South an equally glaring condition prevails. A general 

 survey of stock conditions showing accumulation on April 1 indi- 

 cates an amount on hand less by 110,000,000 feet than on January, 

 1919. The indication of the movement of dry stocks that can be 

 gained from this figure is startling. 



With reports on April production all in, it is shown that; through- 

 out the great hardwood producing regions of the Mississippi valley, 

 incorporating jn-actically all manufacturing elements in that region, 

 the total production during April was a little less than sixty per 

 cent of normal whereas the anticipated production for May and 

 June based on most careful calculations show that during this 

 period the cut cannot possibly exceed seventy per cent of normal. 

 This slight increase is made possible only by an improvement in 

 weather conditions. Careful checking over of all stocks on hand 

 show that as they now exist they are less than seventy-five per 

 cent of normal, are badly broken and in some cases are exhausted. 

 In the southern field there are practically no items except some 

 of the lower grades that are now showing a surprising increase 

 in movement, and a growing scarcity. The lower grades are now 

 slightly draggy because the box business has not been so good as 

 formerly. But there are indications pointing to gradual improve- 

 ment in the box situation and it may be confidently expected that 

 with a cleaning up of the better grades, the buying trade in other 

 lines will be forced to use larger quantities of the lower grades. 

 Actual sales in the southern territory up to the fifth of May were 

 of such large proportions that the going market noted an increase 

 in the average quotations of from one dollar to two dollars a thou- 

 sand in the four or five days preceding. It is dilEcult to say what 

 the market is on any item as prices paid depend primarily upon 

 how confidently the man offering the stock approaches the man 

 about to buy. In many cases recently buyers have paid four or 

 five dollars more one day than they had paid two or three days 

 previously for the same stock, merely because the first seller had 

 not had the courage to ask what he considered the right price for 

 his material. 



In all of the above considerations two very important factors 

 have not been taken into account because as yet they have not 

 shown a definite enough development to have a true bearing on the 

 present movement of hardwoods. However, when they get under 

 way the eifeet will be tremendous. First, there is the export move- 

 ment. This is held up now by excessive freight rates and lack of 

 shipping facilities. When these obstacles are eliminated the ex- 

 port demand for hardwood lumber will be excessive and the quan- 

 tity moved abroad will be limited only by the limitations of supply 

 left after the urgent needs of the domestic markets can be filled. 



The second consideration is the vast demand that must come from 

 the railroads when the administration has opened its buying policy. 

 For political reasons if for no other this must come soon. The 

 administration cannot expect longer to delay matters without 

 seriously jeopardizing its position in the minds of industry, busi- 

 ness and labor throughout the country. When railroad buying, for 

 maintenance as well as for construction purposes, is well launched 

 the call ^:roin this source will be great because there is much to be 

 done that has been left imdone during the last few years. 



The last consideration that should be taken into account in de- 

 termining whether to buy now or to buy later is the fact that the 

 movement of the tremendous farm crop is definitely going to cause 

 a car sliortage, which in time will make quick shipments impossible. 



