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Copyright, The Hardwood Company, 1919 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging, Saw 



Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the 10th and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker, Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell, Technical Editor 



Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn St., CHICAGO 

 Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087 



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Vol. XLVII 



CHICAGO, SEPTEMBER 25, 1919 



No. 11 



General Market Conditions 



THE MARKET TODAY shows inconsistencies which if not care- 

 fully analyzed might be difficult to explain, but which in 

 reality are easily explainable. There is no doubt that as a ■whole 

 the demand is not so brisk as it was a short time ago, that is, the 

 rush of orders which prevailed up to a month ago is now not so 

 strenuous. The probable explanation is that by hard work a num- 

 "ber of factories have stocked up satisfactorily and have misinter- 

 preted the steadying of prices with a tendency toward stability, 

 for weakness on the part of those offering hardwoods for sale. 

 With the cheeking of the rapid upward swing of hardwood values 

 many buyers concluded that the immediate present showed a prob- 

 ability of easing off in the cost of hardwoods, and so adopted a 

 waiting policy in anticipation of bettering themselves through 

 postponing orders. 



Apparently this policy might be justified in a general way by 

 the evidence concerning the actual trend of prices, as the extremely 

 high peaks have been shaved off and this process of shaving has 

 given a rather wrong reflection of the real situation. But it is just 

 as certain that the strength of the last few months is going to be 

 maintained for six months ahead, at least, as it was six weeks ago 

 that the market would continue upward. 



It is a simple fact now that the prices for hardwoods have reached 

 a point where they afford a fair measure of protection against 

 future advance in manufacturing cost and where it is unnecessary 

 and unwise to push them any further. It does not follow, though, 

 because prices now are not advancing the way they had been, that 

 they will take the oi)posite course. It must not be forgotten that 

 a stable market is the normal rather than the unusual condition 

 and that a checking of the advance indicates the growing develop- 

 ment of normality rather than a developing weakness. 



Those who anticipate any radical breaks in lumber prices should 

 consider all features surrounding manufacturing and distributing 

 points before arriving at conclusions. There is no more justifica- 

 tion now for such breaks than there was a month ago. The manu- 

 facturers have been making frantic efforts to catch up with demand, 

 but are constantly meeting with discouraging interruption in the 

 way of growing inefficiency of labor, radical car shortage, insuffi- 

 cient water for floating operations, and other important causes. 



In spite of general impression to the contrary, the trade at large 

 has accomplished very little in cutting down the gap between sup- 

 ply and demand, and while the tendency is toward a gradual elimi- 

 nation of this gap, the progress has been so slow as to have done 

 nothing more than to lend a little assistance in the attempt to 

 stabilize values. 



It is difficult to predict accurately concerning markets, as labor 

 disturbances are so difficult to actually reckon with that one must 

 be careful to take probable effects of such disturbances into con- 

 sideration in anticipating future conditions. The steel strike is 

 now the center of interest for the country at large, and if it con- 

 tinues it is undoubtedly going to have a definite and quite appre- 

 ciable effect upon lumber shipments. Not so much because of mar- 

 kets existing at the steel mills, but because steel using industries 

 if unable to secure their raw materials from the steel mills will 

 necessarily not be in the market for the large quantities of lumber 

 that they use in their various processes. 



Also, the radical and revolutionary demand of the mine workers 

 set forth this week promises to result in serious curtailment on the 

 use of lumber in mines if the mine owners decide they are not 

 justified in meeting these demands and a strike results. On the 

 other hand, various disturbances directly affecting important lum- 

 ber consuming fields have been settled and with the demand such 

 as it is for housing, and markets of a general character, all efforts 

 toward speeding up to make up for lost time will be the natural 

 sequence. 



The most notable settlement is that of the carpenters' strike of 

 Chicago, which gets under way some $12.5,000,000 worth of con- 

 struction work and has launched a veritable deluge of building 

 permit applications on the local offices. A very encouraging sign is 

 the general movement to recognize present costs of construction 

 as here to stay for a considerable period in the future, and to pro- 

 ceed, in the face of the present excessive demand for buildings, 

 with construction that it was originally intended should be further 

 postponed. 



Building work has shown a very gratifying and steady advance 

 in volume for some time in the past, and it is likely that so long as 

 the fair weather continues this increase will also continue at the 

 same rate. 



Generally speaking, the outlook is good for continued strength 

 in the hardwood market. Buyers might be justified in waiting for 

 thirty or sixty days for further favorable developments resulting 

 from the tendency to stabilize values. This waiting would not be 

 justified on lumber that is urgently needed, as the car shortage is 

 certainly here now and will be much more acute in the months to 

 come, but on stuff that is not urgently needed it might be possible 

 that the next thirty or sixty days will show a slight bettering in 

 buying costs in some cases where certain grades or species have 

 been rather out of line and are now being worked into proper rela- 

 tive position. So far, however, as any general easing down in 

 values is concerned there is no reason for anticipating such devel- 

 opment. 



