HARDWOOD RECORD 



17 



which I have selected as the leading woods of 

 the southwest. I .vould place the product last 

 year at about 930.000,000 feet of oak, 56,000,- 

 000 feet of ash, 256,000.000 feet of gum and 

 350.000,000 feet of Cottonwood. 



"It looks as though it were worth while for 

 the ■ Hardwood Manufacturers' Association of the 

 United States to pay some attention to the 

 southwest, for large as our country is we are 

 young yet and are bound to grow. Missouri 

 probably will not increase its product but the 

 other three states will. I doubt if the cotton- 

 wood product will increase very much, if at all. 

 but there are many billions of feet of other hard- 

 woods scattered over these states that are going 

 to be put to the saw in the early future. Let 

 me tell you, too, that the location of this coun- 

 try is going to make it a bigger factor than 

 ever in the world's markets. There are two 

 hardwood exporting districts, one which goes 

 • broad through the north Atlantic coast ports 

 And one via Xew Orleans and Mobile. When the 

 Panama canal shall be opened we will have a 

 new outlet down ^.ur way that will be a big 

 stimulus and we don't need stimulating. We 

 are pretty certaij that without any artificial 

 tielp we are going to make t^ie rest of the hard- 

 wood world sit up and take notice." 



Frank F. Fee's Address. 



Frank F. Fee, of Newark, O., read a paper 

 (which he said had been forced upon him) on 

 "The Outlook for 1905." which follows : 



There is no doubt that the impression is well 

 nigh universal that 1905 is to be an excellent 

 business year, with a large demand for general 

 commodities and higher prices than in 1904. 

 It is the feeling (to such an extent as to in- 

 fluence business plans) that we are at the begin- 

 ning of an era of business prosperity. As tar 

 as I am informed in regard to public sentiment, 

 there is practically no exception to the optimis- 

 tic feeling. It extends to all lines of business 

 (except a few that are affected by special condi- 

 tions) and to all parts of the country. 



The question in hand is, what basis is there 

 for rosy expectations and what assurance have 

 we that they are to be realized? In the first 

 place, let me say that so general an optimism. 

 so almost universal a belief in prosperous condi- 

 tions, is likely to justify itself. When the peo- 

 ple feel that they are well off and that they 

 are to be still better off, they are then willing 

 to spend money and thus bring about the busi- 

 ness activity "which means prosperity to all 

 interests. At such times the prophets of pros- 

 perity fulfill their own predictions. 



You never saw business depression when 

 every one was in an exalted mood. Liberal in- 

 dividual expenditures by the people and a dis- 

 position to enter freely into new enterprises 

 never was followed by business depression. The 

 only limit to prosperity under such conditions 

 is when the people at large overdo matters and. 

 reaching a condition of hysteria, bring about a 

 panic. But a panic results from a prolonged 

 period of inflation and wild speculation. A 

 panic need not follow a period of general pros- 

 perity, but it certainly never immediately pre- 

 cedes it. 



What I have said thus far relates to the 

 psychical conditions on which we predicate a 

 period of prosperity. It is almost sufficiently 

 convincing in itself, but there are facts back 

 of it. The people, as a whole, seldom make a 

 serious mistake in such matters. The average 

 man does not feel prosperous unless he is pros- 

 perous. He does not feel like spending money 

 unless he has money to spend. He does not 

 s'eek investments unless he has money to in- 

 vest. 



What evidence have we that the average citi- 

 zen is prosperous? Has money to spend and 

 money to invest? Let us look back a little 

 over "the business and financial history of the 

 last year or two. It is a popular saying that 

 prosperity and business depression come in ro- 

 tation — In cycles, so to speak. Not every period 

 of depression is marked by a great financial 

 panic. like that of 1893. It we are disposed to 

 assent to the cyclical theory, then we are .iusti- 

 fied in predicting a period of Increasing busi- 

 ness because we have passed through lately a 

 period of business depression, marked by what 

 were almost panics in financial circles. The 

 tremendous boom in stocks in 1903 was fol- 

 lowed by almost equally impressive declines dur- 

 ing more than six months of 1904. Prior to 

 this depression there came what amounted to a 

 financial crisis, with money rates abnormally 

 high, resulting in many paper fortunes being 

 swept away. The decline in stocks was a tre- 

 mendous one. Accompanying this purely finan- 

 cial phase was a general depression in business. 



It was probably accentuated by the approaching 

 national election, but entirely apart from that 

 influence there was a feeling that the time hart 

 come to balance accounts, squeeze the water out 

 of values and to get down to bed rock. That 

 process was accomplished without the accom- 

 paniment of a general panic : and then in the 

 late summer came the reaction. 



The fact is that a period of prosperity is 

 not only before us, but has already be"gun. 

 Along in the fall it was realized that the crops 

 of this country had been enormously profitable 

 to their producers. It is probable that the ag- 

 riculturalists of the United States never be- 

 fore got such large money returns for their 

 year's work as for that of 1904. This was 

 jjarticulariy true in all the northern states. 

 There was a shortage of the wheat crop, but 

 the price realized made the crop yield equally 

 good returns. The live stock market of the year 

 was not satisfactory, and the cotton growers 

 were disappointed in the price of that staple, 

 which fell to a dangerously low point under 

 the influence of an extraordinary crop, but even 

 cotton at the price, supplemented by other crops 

 in the cotton states, has given the farmers of 

 those states at least a living — a good living 

 as compared with the standards of most previ- 

 ous years. Another favorable condition regard- 

 ing corn and small grains was that the farmers 

 themselves realized and benefited by the prices 

 to a much greater extent than ever before. The 

 facts In regard to the crops were made known 

 early so that the farmer was in position to 

 take full advantage of the market, and in wheat 

 especially the advance in prices accrued to the 

 grower instead of the middleman. 



It goes without snying that in this country. 



i"i;a.\k f. fee, 



of Newark, O. 



where agriculture gives employment and a liv- 

 ing to more than 35 per cent of the population, 

 when the farmers are prosperous the country is 

 prosperous. 



The effect of the agricultural prosperity has 

 already been seen in othei' lines. Primarily 

 based on that fact was the advance in stocks 

 which began in the early fall. Then came an 

 increased demand for iron and steel products, 

 and then a general movement of commodities 

 which resulted in a large employment of rail- 

 way equipment. There has been no car famine 

 worth speaking of since 1903. but the resources 

 of the railroads have been fully employed. 

 Some railroads report an actual shortage of 

 cars, not only for the movement of grain, but 

 of general commodities, while ali are fairly 

 well employed. This, in turn, has been reflected 

 in the monthly reports as to railroad earn- 

 ings, which have been swelling with remarkable 

 unanimity, until now both the gross and net 

 earnings of practically all the railroads of the 

 country are on a highly satisfactory basis. 



A small but significant feature of the last 

 month or two has been the large holiday trade. 

 All the large cities, and, as far as heard from, 

 all the smaller places, reported an unusual de- 

 mand for holiday goods of a better class than 

 usual. The increased requirement, not only for 

 the ordinary necessities of life, but for the lux- 

 uries, has brought about a larger movement of 

 commodities, and has set the factories at work 

 more actively than for many months previous. 



The records of bank clearings, while not abso- 

 lutely authoritative, indicate with some degree of 

 accuracy the rise and fall in the total volume 



of business by months in 1904. CTlearing* 

 heavily declined in February as compared with 

 January, then advanced to $8,335,000,000 In 

 March and maintained approximately that figure 

 into July. August showed a slight decline, Sep- 

 tember a gain, and then the figures began to 

 swell until in December the clearings of the 

 country were $12,730,000,000, which was a 

 higher figure than had been realized in any 

 month in the last five years, except In May. 

 1901, when clearings were only a trifle larger. 

 The clearings right through 1903 were larger 

 than those of 1904 except for the closing montliB 

 of the latter year. 



If these reports mean anything they mean a 

 swelling tide of business. This interpretation 

 of them is made more reasonal>le by the fact 

 that the clearings of the country, outside of 

 New York City, where the speculative market 

 has much infiuence, showed a steady increase 

 begiiming with August. 



The general anticipation of a larger and more 

 profitable business in 1903 than was experi- 

 enced last year is, therefore, justified by all 

 the available" facts. A high degree of prosperity 

 with the agricultural classes ; a revival of 

 activity in the iron and steel trade ; a heavier 

 demand for general commodities, resulting in a 

 greater activity in the industries that supply 

 them : a heavier railroad movement, accom- 

 panied by larger gross and net earnings ; a 

 large amount of building in the cities which is 

 now spreading through the country, and bank 

 clearings much larger than the year previous, 

 with every week showing a gain over the cor- 

 responding week of 1904. 



It seems to me that at this beginning of the 

 year we may congratulate ourselves on having 

 a share in this tremendous activity : on being 

 a part of the business fabric of the United 

 States, and may feel confident that the lumber 

 industry, and the hardwood industr.v particularly, 

 will not fail to reap its share of the benefits to 

 result from widespread and universally diffused 

 prosperity. 



Grum Grading Rules. 



rhe grading rules for gum lumber were 

 changed to read as follows : 



1. That the grades now known in our offi- 

 cial inspection as first and seconds be changed to 

 read first and seconds red gum. 



2. That the grade now known in our official 

 inspection rules as seconds, be changed to read 

 first and seconds sap gum. 



Rules on Cottonwood. 

 General instructions on classifications, official 

 grading and inspection rules for Cottonwood 

 lumber follow : 



1. The question of grading and inspecting 

 Cottonwood lumber is so much a matter of 

 judgment to the inspector, as each piece comei 

 before him, that no definite and positive rules 

 can be laid down on paper by which any piece 

 of any given lot can be inspected. 



2. The variety of defects, their size and lo- 

 cation upon a piece have such relations to each 

 other that the inspector necessarily must de- 

 pend upon his own judgment in grading, gnlded 

 by the following rules so far as they will appl^ 

 practically. 



3. Lumber must be inspected and measured 

 as the inspector finds it, of full length and width. 

 He shall make no allowance for the purpose of 

 raising the grade. 



4. In inspecting all lumber, both sides of the 

 piece shall be taken into consideration In nuk- 

 ing the grade, bearing in mind that 90 per cent 

 of all lumber only shows one face when fin- 

 ished. 



5. Lumber shall be well manufactured, of 

 uniform thickness, and have parallel edges. 



6. Tapering lumber shall be measured at 1-3 

 the length of the board from the narrow end. 



7. All lumber shall be tallied surface or face 

 measure, the tally counted up, and the 14 or H 

 added to the total where the board is H4 and 

 1 % Inches thick and two inches or thicker to 

 be multiplied bv the thickness. 



8. In the measurement of all lumber, frac- 

 tions exactly on the '/> foot are to be given al- 

 ternately to the buyer and seller, the fractions 

 below the one-half foot are to be dropped, and 

 all fractions above the % foot are to be counted 

 to the next higher figure on the board rule. 



9. Splits that do not diverge more than 1 

 inch for each foot in length are to be considered 

 straight splits. 



