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HARDWOOD RECORD 



now feeling the eileet of resulting laxity of demand and easing 

 off of prices. 



It may be that the present world-wide situation is but a sign 

 of the times — an indication that the consumers of all kinds of 

 products throughout the civilized nations. of the world are put- 

 ting the curb on the runaway extravagance in which they have 

 been indulging, and which has been exploited so extensively in 

 the press of all countries. The high cost of living has been 

 talked about so widely and the theories on this subject have 

 been hammered into the populations of various countries so per- 

 sistently, that it is possible they are beginning to take heed 

 and entering upon a period of world-wide economy. If this is 

 true it would possibly have the immediate effect of checking 

 trade in general, but the ultimate effect could not help but be 

 extremely favorable as it would mean the accumulation of a tre- 

 mendous amount of money for legitimate investment, the result 

 of which would be the placing of the world's business in a health- 

 ier state than it has enjoyed for quite a number of years. 



As far as the lumber business is concerned, however, this is 

 not the time to exhaust one 's energy in worry over the situation 

 or in endeavoring to puzzle out a legitimate explanation of the 

 present rather perplexing conditions. On the contrary, it is 

 rather a time to stick to the guns pretty closely, making the best 

 of present conditions and stand pat until present indications of 

 an entirely healthy state of trade in the fall prove themselves to be 

 correct. 



Pessimism Not Entirely Warranted 



IF THOSE PESSIMISTS whose minds have become so befuddled 

 * by the present unsettled condition of trade throughout the country, 

 and in fact throughout the world, would take the trouble to look beyond 

 their own immediate surroundings they could find considerable reason 

 for optimism in the various reports and statistics on industries and 

 business. One of these reports of peculiar significance is that recently 

 published by the Interior Eevenue Bureau on the assessments made 

 under the corporation tax law. It covers the calendar year of 1912. 



The report shows that corporations of the United States earned 

 during that year $3,304,000,000 above all expenses. This went to mil- 

 lions of stockholders as dividends.. The report also states that the 

 increased prosperity of the corporation is expected to earn the federal 

 government more than $36,000,000, including $3,000,000 of omitted 

 taxes for the previous year. This is more than the corporation tax 

 ever amounted to, exceeding the year 1911 by $7,000,000. 



Further the total number of corporations reporting during 1912 was 

 310,000, an increase of 7 per cent over 1911, as compared to an increase 

 of 6 per cent for the preceding year, and less than 4 per cent the year 

 before that, specifically, 1909 and 1910. In every state the corpora- 

 tions showed an increase in assets and in properties and in dividends 

 paid with the three exceptions of Colorado, Oregon and Wisconsin, 

 where a merely nominal decrease was noted. 



Taking these figures, which are absolutely bona fide, in connection 

 with the promise of tremendous crops in every line in the country, 

 including the southern cotton and cane production, and also consider- 

 ing the fact that the administration at Washington has demonstrated 

 pretty closely that it has its wits well about it, we are more convinced' 

 than ever that the present peculiar condition is one entirely artificial in 

 its nature, and not based on any fundamental weakness in the indus- 

 trial or business structure of the country. 



There is a little quotation somewhere from somebody which states 

 that if everybody would smUe just a little, the smile would soon reach 

 great aggregate proportions, and in fact the result would be that the 

 universe would soon be in a pretty fair state of mind. This is the 

 state of affairs at present, except that instead of "smiling a while," 

 everybody is "scowling a while," and if everybody scowls together, 

 the aggregate scowl will be one of tremendous proportions. 



It is just about full moon time now, and why wouldn't it be a 

 good idea for the population of ' ' terra firma ' ' to absorb a little of the 

 tremendous brilliancy of the moon and reflect back to it a bright, 

 happy countenance rather than a perpetual frown of worry over some- 

 thing that nobody seems to be able to fathom, and which the best of 



them say is but a condition resulting from that very worry. It is a 

 sort of an endless circle, or a case of being afraid of one's own shadow. 

 Undue optimism is unquestionably just as poor a business plan as is 

 undue pessimism, but why not get out of the rut of thinking about the 

 things we don't know anything about anyway, and can't find out 

 about, and let our minds dwell on the concrete facts such as are above 

 stated, and try to work up a little enthusiasm over the situation in 

 general. 



Northern Stocks in Good Shape 



REPORTS FROM THE MICHIGAN HARDWOOD MANUFAC- 

 TURERS' ASSOCIATION and the Northern Hemlock and 

 Hardwood Manufacturers' Association are analagous, insofar as 

 they reveal stock conditions that in some quarters will probably 

 be rather surprising. The records of the two associations prove 

 beyond doubt that there is absolutely no accumulation of any 

 northern stocks in hardwood or hemlock and that on the other 

 hand some items are sold right up to cut. In Michigan the stock 

 of hardwoods at the mill is less than it has been since 1909 and 

 only about eighty-eight per cent of what it was a year ago. At 

 no time during the past four years has there been a surplus stock 

 in the hands of Michigan producers. It is expected in Michigan 

 that under favorable trade conditions during the next year the 

 greatest shortage of northern hardwood lumber that has ever been 

 seen will become a fact and even under very unfavorable trade 

 conditions it is not expected that any material surplus will 

 develop. The total stock of maple lumber is but eighty-nine per 

 cent of the stock of a year ago and the stock remaining unsold is 

 less than twenty-five per cent of what it was July 1, 1912. 



In Wisconsin and upper Michigan the average of seventy 

 monthly reports during the last twelve months showed twenty 

 per cent more hemlock shipped than sawed and forty per cent 

 more hardwoods shipped than produced, making an excess of 

 shipments over cut of fifteen per cent since the first of July, 

 1912. For the first six months of 1913 compared with the first 

 six months of 1912 there was a decrease in hemlock cut of five 

 per cent and in hemlock shipments of seventeen per cent and an 

 increase in hardwood cut of twelve per cent and a decrease of 

 hardwood shipments of seven per cent. This makes an increase 

 of total cut of three per cent and a decrease of total shipments 

 of thirteen per cent, the latter being affected, however, mainly 

 by the fact that this year was begun with thirty-five per cent 

 less stock on hand than last year. 



More detailed statistics covering the cut and shipments and 

 present conditions of stock of the members of these two associa- 

 tions, which make up the bulk of northern hemlock and hardwood 

 manufacturers, will be found on other pages of this issue of 

 Hardwood Record. They are well worthy of careful consideration. 

 They merely go to show that the present dullness of trade as far 

 as lumber is concerned is merely a combination of usual summer 

 dullness and hysteria. 



Terms of Sale Part of the Contract 



AT ITS LAST ANNUAL CONVENTION, held at Atlantic City, 

 the National Wholesale Lumber Dealers' Association appointed 

 a strong committee on terms of sale. This committee is made up of 

 men who are recognized throughout the lumber world as ' ' thinkers. ' ' 

 The report of the terms of sale committee at the time of the con- 

 vention developed what was probably the most interesting and most 

 important session of the meeting. It is recognized pretty generally 

 throughout the trade that there is considerable variation in terms as 

 used by even the membership of the same association in various parts 

 of the country. There has been considerable discussion during the 

 past year all over the country concerning the application of terms. 

 It has been recognized that the most satisfactory results could come 

 only from uniformity. Hence, the convention reaftirmed its approval 

 of the terms adopted in 1902, and approved of the form of order 

 blanks and acknowledgments bearing these terms, recommending their 

 use by the members. 



