April 25, 1922 



HARDWOOD RECORD 



19 



reported business as improving, and one of these said that the quantity 

 of stock being sold was increasing daily. One mill reported business 

 as ' 'good.' ' 



Opinions on Conditions 

 The linal question of the series which elicited the above information 

 i.oncerns the manufacturer's "version of the present and early future 

 manufacturing and sales of hardwood lumber?" and because the an- 

 swers must necessarily be largely opinions, could not be answered 

 in as specific terms as the other questions. These opinions are about 

 fijually divided among those wlio see no immediate prospect for im- 

 provement in demand and prices, and those who expect an increase in 

 demand and advance in prices, especially during the fall. However, 

 the best way to estimate these varying opinions on conditions and 

 weigh one against the other is to read them, and, accordingly a few 

 of the more interesting ones will be quoted: 



1. We expect to be very cautious in laying plans for extensive 

 manufacture of lumber. In fact, can't operate at a profit right now. 

 We will operate on a hand-to-mouth policy until assured of a steady 

 market for our output. We don't expect any great call for hardwood 

 lumber as a whole, but on some items w'e look for a severe shortage. 

 This applies to the early future. This fall we expect to see demand 

 for a larger volume of hardwood lumber, with steady increase until at 

 least normal demand is reached. But prices will be higher. 



2. In our section (Alabama) we are greatly hauaicapped froni early 

 fall until spring by rainy weather, which makes logging impossible. 

 However, after May 1 we expect manufacturing to improve in volume, 

 which will have a tendency to hold present low prices down, as we 

 can't expect very much iniprovement in business until foreign trade is 

 awakened, which will not happen until credit is established. 



3. There will be verj- little hardwood lumber manufactured in the^ 

 Delta until the latter part of June. After the floodwaters run oft it will 

 take three to four weeks for the swamps to dry out. We look for sales 

 of hardwood lumber to increase and prices of low grades to advance. 



4. We look for very little improvement in sales in the immediate 

 future, and the mills are not manufacturing any more than they can 

 help. That is, none of them would be running if it was not to keep 

 their organization intact, or on account of short life timber, on which 

 the time to remove from the land has about run out. Looking at the 

 situation from the millman's point of view, there is ver.v poor encour- 

 agement to run. 



5. As a whole we regard conditions as too uncertain to be making 

 preparations of any kind toward starting any of our mills. 



6. Do not believe there will be more than 30 per cent of usual output 

 of hardwood in the Southern territory in the next two or three months. 

 Do not look for any rush of buying or any material improvement in 

 prices. 



7. Manufacture of hardwoods will be curtailed by excessive rains 

 throughout the entire South. Do not look for normal production until 

 normal consumption is reached and better prices obtained by pro- 

 ducers. 



8. Do not look for a heavy demand until fall, when will look for a 

 marked shortage and higher prices. 



9. Our shipments in feet for the last three months of 1921 were 

 the largest in our history. We fell oft approximately 30 per cent dur- 

 ing January and February, but our business for March compared 

 favorably with the best business we have ever had. We anticipate 

 our shipments for th<» next sixty days will fall oft to some extent 

 because of our inability to supply certain grades and thicknesses that 

 are in demand. We anticipate a considerable increase in the consump- 

 tion of hardwoods from all the various woodworking lines, as compared 

 with 1921. Stocks unquestionably are very much lighter than a year 

 ago. especially in the higher grades, and we believe that lumber of 

 good quality is going to find a ready market throughout the year; in 

 fact, we fear that in many items the supply will be unequal to the 

 demand. 



10. We had the largest shipment from our mills in March of this 

 year that we have had since the middle of 1920. "We overshipped our 

 mill cut about 200,000 feet. However, just at the present writing, 

 things seem to be a little quiet and unless we get in a considerable 

 business we will not be able to ship the mill cut through the month 

 of April. 



11. Business is fairly good and we look for a slight but steady 

 increase from now on. Prices seem to be steady and, taken as a whole, 

 we believe the lumber business looks better now than it has for the 

 last two years. 



This should suffice to demonstrate what the hardwood liunber manu- 

 facturers in the Mississippi Delta region believe will be the conditions 

 in their industry during the next few months. Statistics quoted at 

 the beginning of the article, showed how overwhelmingly logging and 

 mill production had been curtailed around April 1 by the annual spring 

 flooding of the Mississippi and its tributaries in the delta section. 



Floods in South Grow Worse 



Flood conditions have become steadily worse in the lower 

 Mississippi valley on the part of both the Mississippi itself and 

 all of its principal tributaries. This is clear from the statement, 

 from official sources, that the Mississippi is higher at Eosedale, 

 Miss.; Helena, Ark.; Arkansas City, Ark.; Greenville, Miss.; Vieks- 

 burg, Miss., and Xatchez, Miss., than ever before in its entire 

 history. Arkansas, White, St. Francis, and other rivers in Ar- 

 kansas are at record stages and the same is true of tributaries on 

 the Mississippi side. As a result the area flooded is greater than 

 ever previously known. A government official who has spent much 

 time in the lower valley is himself authority for this statement. 

 Heavy rains in West Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi and Lou- 

 isiana have contributed to the high stage of the rivers in these 

 states and also to the amount of forest and other lands that are 

 I covered with water. Further rains in the upper valleys of tribu- 

 t;iries of the Mississippi have added to the stage of this stream 

 from Cairo to the Gulf and a second rise is now passing Memphis. 

 This means that the period of flood conditions will be substantially 

 prolonged and that the area now flooded cannot drain for a num- 

 ber of weeks. 



Not Much. Production Till June 



It is conceded by hardwood interests having plants in the flooded 

 area that little, if anything, can be accomplished in the way of 

 hardwood manufacture in the lower valley territory until June 1, 

 if then. Present flood, back and surface waters cannot find outlet 

 to the gulf before that time, even if the weather continues favor- 

 able and there are no breaks in the levee system. The protecting 



embankments are being subjected to the greatest strain in their 

 history and Memphis lumbermen, with interests in north Louisiana, 

 are fearful that some of the levees will give way, thus resulting 

 in the inundation of vastly greater areas than are now affected. 



F. K. Conn, of the Bayou Land & Lumber Co., Yazoo City, Miss., 

 says that flood conditions in his territory are the worst he has ever 

 seen, and that his farm is covered with water to a pretty fair 

 depth for the second time in its history. The forests and all low- 

 lands are flooded with water and train service has been seriously 

 interrupted. His plant is idle and he estimates that considerably 

 more than 50 per cent of the mills in the lower valley are already 

 out of commission. Some plants in North Louisiana are still able 

 to operate but the vast majority of them are shut down because 

 their woods are flooded and because they have been cut off from 

 their log supplies. In the territory south of Helena, Ark., the 

 tracks of the Missouri Pacific are covered with water and train 

 service has been interrupted, cutting off log supplies for all the 

 plants in that center. There is serious interference with hardwood 

 production from the Missouri State line to the extreme southern 

 limits of the hardwood area in Louisiana. It is impossible to give 

 an accurate statement of what is happening at every place but 

 the following gives a pretty definite idea of the extent to which 

 mills have had to suspend operations: 



Survey of Mills Not Operating 



Memphis — All mills in the southern part of the city and the ma- 

 jority of those in the northern end. Stoppage is due to the cutting 

 off of log supplies. 



