HARDWOOD RECORD 



«9 



Analysis of HardWood Conditions hy Leading Minds 



of the Trade, 



On December VZ tbc editor of the Hard- 

 woop Record issued the following letter to 

 the leading hardwood mamifacturcrs and mer- 

 chants of the country; 



From all sources of Information I have at 

 hand I believe the backbone of the flnancial 

 scare Is liroki'U and that business — notably the 

 hardwood lumber businijss — will very soon re- 

 sume normal conditions. What buying has been 

 done for two months past has been of the hand- 

 to-mouth variety, and buyers have refrained 

 from making; large purchases, both on account of 

 the flnancial stringency and in the belief that 

 they would be able to buy lumber for less money 

 later on. From the fact that very little price- 

 cutting has been indulged in. and that dry hard- 

 wood stocks are very low, I believe with the 

 resumption of demand values will be well main- 

 tained. To my mind there is every prospect 

 that this will commence Immediately after the 

 first of January. 



Apropos of the above, I want to impose on 

 your good nature to ask that you write me your 

 opinion on the hardwood situation, with the idea 

 of publishing in the next issue of the Kecord a 

 series of letters containing individual ideas on 

 this subject from every prominent manufacturer 

 and hardwood merchant in the country. 



Thanking you in advance for this information, 

 and trusting that your experience and observa- 

 tion will enable you to take an optimistic view 

 of the situation, I remain. 



Very sincerely yours, 



IlBNUY II. Gibson, 

 Editor II.iRDwooD Record. 



Everj- one of the answers received, which 

 are herewith presented, is pregnant with sin- 

 cerity and is well worth the perusal of every- 

 body interested in hardwood affairs. From 

 the fact that their authors are the foremost 

 men in their line of trade, many being closely 

 allied with banking interests, the information 

 and opinions contained therein can be re- 

 garded as authoritative. 



Of the great number of letters printed it 

 will be found tliat with only one or two ex- 

 ceptions the situation is viewed very opti- 

 mistically. They show that the hardwood 

 output has been decreased to the minimum, 

 stocks have not accumulated; that little or 

 no effort is being made to force sales; that 

 the stocks in the hands of the jobbers and 

 wholesale consumers are very much reduced; 

 that the money situation is easier; that there 

 is evidence of a plenitude of banking facil- 

 ities within a very short time; that inquiries 

 for lumber are manifestly increasing; that 

 prices arc in no wise demoralized and that 

 there is every evidence of a fair demand im- 

 mediately after January 1, which will increase 

 as the season advances. 



If any one after reading these letters is 

 not convinced that the business demoraliza- 

 tion induced by the recent financial flurry is 

 at an end, and that the renaissance of normal 

 conditions is at hand, he must be pessimistic 

 indeed. 



Four W.vvxE, IXD., Dec. 13. — Editor Hardwood 

 Record: Yours of the 12th Inst, received. Your 

 conclusion that the backbone of the financial 

 scare Is broken is correct In your correspond- 



ent's opinion. I have never believed that It 

 was more than a bank scare, as It was the 

 banks that were hoarding money more than the 

 people. If you have stiidied the latest bank 

 statements, they will prove this statement. As 

 I understand It, reserved cities only arc re- 

 quired to carry the 2.1 per cent, outside Na- 

 tional banks only 1.") per cent. Look at their 

 statements. If they had acted In a sane, not 

 even to say lilierai manner, the scare would have 

 been practically over as soon as It comracneed. 

 In talking the situation over some three or 

 four weeks buck, your correspondent made the 

 assertion that the country would continue trans- 

 acting business in spite of the banks. This re- 

 fers to them as a class. I am glad to say that 

 quite a few have been not only reasonable, but 

 positively liberal under existing circumstances, 

 among them our banks here in Fort Wayne, 

 who have taken care of their customers practic- 

 ally tlie same as if there had been no financial 

 scare. 



We have not for an instant curtailed our 

 purchases or our mainifacture.. We have been, 

 and arc still, in the market for such class of 

 lumber as we handle, at present prices. As an 

 illustration of many letters sent out from this 

 office I am enclosing a letter of inquiry with 

 our reply to same. As stated, this is one of 

 many, and is a sample of how many firms try 

 to take advantage of the situation to buy lumber 

 cheap. The answer to this leter indicates our 

 opinion way back in November. 



We have not cut otu* prices a penny, and do 

 not intend to do so, your correspondent's opin- 

 ion being that lumber will advance in value 

 rather than depreciate. We still continue to 

 have a gootl fair volume of business previously 

 booked, with a reasonable amount of new orders 

 each week, and at the same old prices, and we 

 expect they will continue. 



We are not gambling on our opinion, as we 

 do not consider it a gamble, but a sure business 

 proposition that values will remain at tbc pres- 

 ent level or even advance. We can honestly say 

 that not one-half of 1 per cent of our orders 

 were canceled ; that 9S per cent of our discount 

 cash customers cashed their bills and took ad- 

 vantage of their discount throughout the entire 

 period ; that every piece of commercial paper 

 was paid promptly when presented. This rec- 

 ord may be much better than the average, but 

 of course we can give only our own experience. 

 If any of our lumbermen are looking down 

 their nose, ihcy should cheer up Immediately. 

 Are we downhearted? NO! 

 Yours truly, 



rKnRIXE-ARM.STR()XG COMP.VNY, 



Van B. I'errlne. 



CIXCI^■^■.^TI. Ohio, Dec. 13. — Editor Hardwood 

 Record: Replying to your recpicst of the 12th 

 inst., beg to say that we find conditions mate- 

 rially better than they were a month <m' six 

 weeks ago. Business Is not as snappy as It has 

 l>ccn. nor do we expect it to be that way Ibc 

 coming year. We are getting new business right 

 along and for this time of the year it looks 

 very encouraging and we look for a very good 

 business next year, possibly not as good as It 

 has been, but It looks to us as though things 

 were going to be In a very healthy condition. 



Collections with us have been very slow, but 

 In some quarters now seem to he easing up 

 considerably, and we believe after the first of 

 the year will be sllll easier. 



As far as prices are concerned, they have not 

 weakened wllh us. and we can see no good 

 reason why they should weaken. 

 Very truly yours, 

 T. B. Stone Llmber Company. 



L. S. 



Cincinnati, Ohio, Dec. 13.— Editor U.vianvooD 

 Record : We have your favor of the 12th Inst., 

 and In reply will say that our business has been 

 much better than we expected during the past 

 two months. All of our customers have only 

 been buying what they actually have to have 

 to complete unllnished work, and this has been 

 more than we expected It would be. 



We have talked to most of our customers dur- 

 ing the last two weeks, and they all seem to 

 think that they will be In the market for more 

 lumber after the first of the year, but we do 

 not think that they will buy In very large quan- 

 tities, and we are inclined to think that there 

 will not be any great demand for a very large 

 stock, and we are afraid that some of the dealers 

 are going to cut prices in order to get busi- 

 ness. 



We have found several cases where lumber 

 ■was being offered very cheap, but we do not 

 think that it Is going to be necessary to make 

 any great change in the prices of hardwood 

 lumi)er. We think that as soon as the demand 

 for lumber starts, that the lumber being of- 

 fered at these dieap prices will be taken up In 

 a very short time, and a few orders at a 

 good price will help stllTen up the people that 

 are inclined to sell their stock too cheap. 



We do not think that very many of the con- 

 sumers have a large stock ahead, and when 

 they do start to running they will certainly 

 have to buy some lumber, and cutting prices 

 will not make tiiem do it any (piicker. We 

 believe that we will get aliout ail we expected 

 lor our stock when we sell It. Yours truly, 

 Mowbray & Rnuixsox, 



1". W. Mowbray. 



CIXCIXXATI, O., Dec. 12. — Editor II.vrdwood 

 Record: Your favor of the 12th. asking 

 for opinion on the hardwood situation, re- 

 ceived. Realizing that concessions in prices 

 do not stimulate the demand for lum- 

 ber, and believing that under existing con- 

 ditions it is not good policy to solicit 

 business, we have been making no effort to pro- 

 cure orders, but have thankfully taken care of 

 those which were olTered us. 



0\u- business for last and this month will fall 

 off about 50 per cent, and we have not noticed 

 any marked iniprovemeni In demand, nor do we 

 anticipate any unlil the latter part of January. 

 We believe that money will be easy by that 

 time and plentiful by March 1. 



There is no doubt in our mind but that there 

 will be at least a normal demand for lumber 

 during next year, and wllh the curtailment of 

 manufacture through necessity and policy we 

 cannot see how the supply will excewl the de- 

 mand. Cost of stunipage has not depreciated, 

 and under any conditions will not Iw lower than 

 at |)resent. IndiM- these conditions we cannot 

 sec liow values of manufactured lumber can be 

 lower than at present. 



We are so firmly convinced of this that, re- 

 gardless of conditions, not one foot of otu- lum- 

 ber will be placed upon the market at less than 

 l)re.scnt prevailing prices. Y'ours truly. 



KEXTLCKY LtJIBEK COMI'AXV. 



Cincinnati, Ohio, Dec. 13. — Editor Hard- 

 wood Record: We are In receipt of your es- 

 teemed favor of titc 12th Inst, and note con- 

 tents. 



We must confess that we are undecided as 

 to what the Immediate future In the harilwood 

 lumber business will develop. There Is no de- 

 nying the fact that at present and for several 

 weeks past tlicre has been very little lumber 

 sold: In fact, we believe there can be no qtics- 

 tion but that there has been l'-^" imslness in 



