IS 



HARDWOOD RECORD 



September 2~>. I'l'Jl 



Probable Requirements of Hardwood for Turned 



and Shaped Wood Products 



By W. A . Babbitt 



The average lunilienii.-iii Imcs I lie |iri'seiil logfiinK season witli 

 iMiieh uncertainty. The past season has lieen one of the most 

 disastrous ever experienced. The visible liazards of undertaking 

 operations arc far more numerous than tlicy were a year ago. In 

 spite of all manufaetured and all gpuuine oiitimism, he faces the 

 fact that hardwood values are still declining. He sees no buying 

 in sight that will shore up a tottering market. 



On the other hand, he is not n little jiuzzled as to \vliether the 

 "bad signs'' that he sees everywhere are signs of the times that 

 have past, or the times that are to come. Last year signs went by 

 contraries. Is that the case this year.' 



In order to answer this question for manufacturers of turned and 

 shaped wood products, a questionnaire was recently sent out, con- 

 taining numerous questions on this one phase of production, and 

 sent to all sections of the Hardwood Belt. 

 As this group is one of the largest buyers 

 of hardwoods, it is possible that the re- 

 turns of this questionnaire are of general 

 interest. Each reader will naturally put 

 his own interpretation on the returns. 



Boiled tlow'n to a single question, the 

 direct inquiry was made as to how niucli 

 lieldover stock each firm had on hand, 

 and how long this stock would last at 

 the current rate of production. The firms 

 reporting were located in hardwood cen- 

 ters from Maine to Texas, and were di- 

 vided into several local groups. 



4. Wliy This Group Is Out of the Market 



1. The Situation as a Whole. 



The average amount of stocks on ham! 

 for the entire grouiJ is sufficient to last 

 for SEVENTEEN months, at the present 

 rate of production. This does not mean 

 that these groups will be entirely out of 

 the market for that period. But the only buying that can be 

 reliably anticipated will be small lots to replace shortage in certain 

 lines of stock regularly carried. 



2. Analysis by Groups. 

 New England Grou]): Stocks in hand for 23.5 months. 

 New York, Pennsylvania and Virginia; Stocks in hand to last 

 16 months. 



Ontario and Quebec: Stocks in hand to last for 16 months. 



Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee and Arkansas: Stocks in hand 

 to last 12 months. 



Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Mii-higan and Ohio: ."^tnck^ in h;iud to 

 last 11. S months. 



3. Comment. 



It will l)e notcti that the largest stocks are to be found in New 

 England. A further analysis of this group shows that these exces- 

 sive stocks arc largely in the hands of concerns who manufacture 

 their own stock from the stump. 



For the past five months, the vohune of business actually shipped 

 by the wood shaping and turning industries has hovered around 

 25 percent of normal. This normal is not measured by dollars, 

 but by volume of output, which naturally refieets the amount of 

 lumber consumed. Practically all this output has been sold for 

 much less than cost to produce. Existing conditions do not offer 

 liope for early betterment of this situation. 



The continued frantic efforts of 

 hardwood lumbermen to unload 

 stocks of dimension and other lum- 

 ber at unheard of low prices is pro- 

 longing the demoralized state of the 

 market. There can be no hope of a 

 return of stabilization to the market 

 as long as these frantic efforts to un- 

 load are continued. In fact, says 

 W. A. Babbitt, general secretary of 

 the National Association of Wood 

 Turners, the group of industries he 

 represents is in such shape as to be 

 indifferent to the most extravagant 

 bargains, and "give-away" quota- 

 tions to them will do no good. — The 

 Editor. 



LuiiilHriuen will draw their own conclusions from the above 

 facts. No group of industries can go into the market under sucli 

 conditions, no matter what price inducements arc offered. A 

 steady losing market for ontjiut, and at least a year's supjily of 

 lumber, on the average, are practically unsurmountable barriers 

 fur the most enticing bargains to hurdle. There come to the 

 writer's desk long lists of bargains in clear ilimension stock at un- 

 believable prices. No doubt the firms offering this stock to an 

 industrial grouj) long committed to standardization wonder why 

 their offerings go begging. We hope that lumbermen understand 

 after reading this statement. I have before me an offer of clear 

 squares, national inspection, at less than half of the cost to pro- 

 duce. This offer conn's from a reliable 

 ■ lud naticiually known company. If it is 

 jiroper t(i express an opinion on this 

 tender, it would be moderate to say that 

 it is demoralizing to the whole lumber 

 industry of which the wood fabricating 

 industry is no unimportant part. There 

 c:iu be no argument on the statement 

 tliat there will be no stable reconstruc- 

 tinii of the market for lumber, especially 

 li.irdwoods, which wood fabricating in- 

 iliistries normally supply, so long as lum- 

 bermen continue their jiresent frantii- 

 efforts to unload. 



It seems to the writer that a sound 

 optimistic view may well be taken from 

 a careful study of the data just sub- 

 mitted. There can be no question that 

 we have experienced a slight but dis- 

 tinctly favorable turn in the industries 

 referred to in this article, during the 

 last six weeks. Taking the Middle West groups as a basis, an 

 increase from 25 percent of normal production to 40 percent will 

 'put this powerful buying group in the market by April next at 

 the latest. When they are able to buy, sellers will find them 

 quite as apt to recognize a bargain as they were "before the war.'" 



National Lumber Manufacturers' Association 



Holds Standardization Conference 



in Chicago 



Lumber manufacturers, distributors and consumers will hobl a 

 standardization conference at the Congress Hotel in Chicago on 

 October 18, it was announced here by the National Lumber Manu- 

 factiuers ' Association. 



.Xccordiu^ to the association, it is not renewing the lumber size 

 investigation upon which it made a report in September, 1920, but 

 is arranging the meeting to afford each association of manufac- 

 turers, distributors, architects, engineers, contractors and lumber 

 consumers to participate in whatever action may be undertaken 

 along this line b.v the I'nited States Forest Service. 



The Forest Service has announced its intention to engage in a 

 lumber st:indardization investigation for the purpose of promoting 

 the standardization of sizes, p;itterns and grades. 



