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Copyright. The Hardwood Company, 1921 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging, baw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the 10th and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edwin W. Meeker, Vice Pres. and Editor 

 H. F. Ake, Secretary-Treasurer 

 Lloyd P. Robertson, Associate Editor 



Seventh Floor, Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn St., CHICAGO 

 Telephone: HARRISON 8087 



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Vol. LI 



CHICAGO, OCTOBER 10, 1921 



No. 12 



Ll> 



Review and Outlook 





General Market Conditions 



REGARDLESS OF WHAT MAY BE THE OPINION of any one 

 man or any group of men regarding the state of the market 

 for hardwood lumber, the fact remains that those who have made 

 a life work of producing and marketing products of the hardwood 

 forests have endured a period of four or five months, when their 

 order books were practically untouched b.v entries, and that during 

 the past few weeks those same pages have become covered with a 

 sufBcient number of orders of sufficiently good size to have given 

 them more or less the appearance of old days. Further it is sig- 

 nificant that many of the people who have accepted a substantial 

 number of such orders are those who consistently turned down 

 unattractive Inisiness during the past four or five months, being 

 in position to hold their stock for more sane realization. Stated 

 with actualities rather than with theory, it is not today necessary 

 1^ guess at how things are going because orders are there to be 

 tabulated and compared with similar records during the spring and 

 summer months. The comparison is obviously and encouragingly 

 favorable to the jiresent. 



It is not a vacant statement and no unfounded optimism which 

 maintains that business in the hardwood belt is definitely improved 

 and to further state that improvement so far realized is unques- 

 tionably of a permanent nature and has already had its effect 

 upon market prices. The writer of this editorial saw an order 

 placed by maU and confirmed by wire at Memphis ten days before 

 this publication date, calling for two cars of common and selects 

 plain white oak to be delivered at an eastern consuming point on 

 a basis that would net forty-four dollars a thousand at Memphis. 

 This order is cited not because it is our intention here to cite going 

 prices, but because it was typical of a number of similar orders 

 actually seen during this same trip to Memphis. 



Similarly on this same journey into that famous hardwood region, 

 the editor of Hardwood Kecord encountered or was told of the 

 visits of several buyers. According to the statements of Memphis 

 lumbermen, no such personages have visited their offices for the 

 past four or five months. 



In the opinion of the editor the key to the future of the hard- 

 wood situation is not necessarily immediate inquiries or orders. 

 In fact, the analysis conducted on this same trip was concerned 

 more with production. Hardwood Becord has reiterated regularly 



in its issues of the past four or five months the dangerous trend 

 of production, so far as consumers' interest is concerned, and on 

 this trip the editor was able to verify previous statements by the 

 definite facts he encountered throughout the southern producing 

 region in particular, and in a slightly less marked degree through- 

 out the northern region. It is a fact discernible by a very casual 

 observation that there can not be more than from ten to fifteen 

 per cent of the usual hardwood production now in operation. This 

 is in the face of the fact that the southern logging season has but 

 four two six weeks to run and that those crews which are not in 

 the woods within the next two weeks will not go into the woods 

 until late next spring or next summer. In the meantime, the 

 demand is slowly but surely increasing and already stocks have 

 reached a point where a number of mills have very little of any- 

 thing to offer, even in low grade. Of course there is a large stock 

 of low grade on hand throughout the territory, but it is doubtful 

 if this amount is at all in excess of what is normally carried. It 

 is more pronounced because of the scarcity of the upper grades in 

 comparison with the lower grades on hand. 



The whole situation resolves itself into a concrete expression of 

 what the judgment of the buyer has determined. Within recent 

 weeks a number of buyers have distinctly come into the market for 

 as much lumber as they could carry. Unquestionably others are 

 anxious to buy if they can finance the purchase. Hardwood 

 Record's advice to buyers is that the figures presented today by 

 hardwood lumbermen leave no question as to the outcome. Official 

 compilation reveals that red oak logs are today realizing for the 

 producers about $23.50 as against about $21..50 eight years ago. 

 It is common knowledge that freight rates have made that differ- 

 ence up several times over and in fact the increase in taxes has 

 practically absorbed the entire increase. This is not a hazarded 

 figure but is one which will be published in official form in due time. 



Hardwood Record's advice, therefore, is that a wise business 

 policy certainly dictates the purchase of hardwood lumber today, 

 first, because it can still be procured, and, secondly, because the 

 trend of prices must be upward. This opinion disregards any tem- 

 porarily fluctuations thiit may come in in the meantime. The long 

 pull towards general business improvement is well on. The trend 

 will be for advanced lumber prices just as sure as the rising and 

 setting of the sun. 



