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i-of^yrtijlit, Thk HAKiiwonn (.( 



MPANY, IQJi) 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging. Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the 10th and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



EDWIN W. MEEKER. Vice Pres. and Editor 



H. F. AKE, Secretary-Treasurer 



LLOYD P. ROBERTSON, Associate Editor 



Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 53 7 So. Dearborn St., CHICAGO 

 Telephone: HARRISON 8087 



VoL LI 



CHICAGO, JUNE 25, 1921 



No. 5 



Review and Outlook 



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New 



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General Market Conditions 



THE REC'OED DURIXG THE I'AST TWO WEEKS bears out the 

 predictions made at intervals during the current depression period 

 indicating that the progress towards improved business would be 

 inconsistent in its daily program though maintaining in general a 

 fairly consistent course upwards. With a market balance in so deli- 

 cate a position the trade is naturally sensitive to minor influences 

 which under more normal tiuies would escape unnoticed. During 

 the present groping for improvement all tendencies are observed 

 *ven though in themselves they may be of distinctly minor importance. 



Thus it has followed during the past three weelcs that a period of 

 •even greater slackness has prevailed. Insofar as this applies directly 

 to the lumber business it may be assumed that it has resulted from a 

 variety of local and minor influences which banded together have 

 assumed far more effective proportions than could possibi}' result with 

 a more favorable volume of business moving. 



Among such influences are the ever present inactivity of railroad 

 buying. Linked with it today, though, is the result of efforts in 

 various large sections to bring labor charges down to a more rea- 

 sonable basis. Resulting strikes have completely tied up various 

 large consuming markets. The movement of hardwood lumber is 

 invariably regulated by the movement of furniture to the retail stores. 

 It is true that retailers in the main have allowed their stocks to be- 

 come very much broken in spite of a fairly consistent movement into 

 consumers' hands. EetaUers' experience with furniture prices has 

 not been such as to inspire any substantial measure of buying. In 

 approaching the July markets the furniture manufacturing trade is 

 apparently cognizant of the general necessity for eliminating all infla- 

 tion of prices and figuring sales marks on the ba.sis of present cost 

 without regard to former selling prices. If the idea can be sold to 

 the retailers that these figures represent rock bottom markets, they 

 in turn are apparently in position to place a fair volume of business. 

 It is impossible, though, at this date to make even an intelligent 

 guess at the jirobable results from the July markets, an^ in the 

 meantime until this factor is established, it is not likely any sub- 

 stantial volume of business will be placed by the furniture manu- 

 facturers. 



Any honest analysis of conditions prevailing during the past few 

 weeks must state that the dominant note is far from satisfactory, 

 and that depression has been augmented rather than lessened. At 

 the same time the old reliable principals of supply and demand 

 •still govern. The most pronounced feature of any news columns as 

 dealing with the forest products industries at present is the consistent 



report of shut-ilown of operations in the manufacture of hardwood lum- 

 ber and veneers and the almost total absence of activity in log pro- 

 duction. In other words, not only have the saws shut down but the 

 organizations normally engaged in producing raw material have also 

 ceased. At present about the only real activity Ls found in north- 

 ern operations where, due to the winter sawing custom, a fair sujiply 

 of logs is still on hand requiring to be cut. Thus production can fairly 

 he a.ssumed to have kept approximate pace with volume of con- 

 sumption. 



It seems that it is growing more and more difficult to analyze 

 the future. This difficulty arises primarily from the inconsistencies 

 of evidence. At the same time that distress offerings of many items 

 of hardwood stocks are being forced onto the market, one finds by care- 

 ful analysis of stock sheets and other forms sadly broken supplies 

 wliich it will be impossible to replenish for a long time in the future. 

 One also finds reports of almost total absence of building activity in 

 some sections, at the same time other large sections show record- 

 breaking building statistics. 



Boiled down to the ultimate analysis there is little use in trying to 

 gain encouragement or of being influenced in the opposite direc- 

 tion by developments from week to week. The condition in which 

 we find ourselves is too basic to be reckoned on shortsight calculations 

 as it essentially involves buying power which in turn reflects earnings. 

 It is true that manufacturers selling during the recent boom times 

 at inflated prices realized that the turn must eventually come but it 

 is doubtful if anyone foresaw the terrific reaction which has since 

 taken placa in the public mind. The term ' ' buyer 's strike ' ' was 

 created by propaganda but it fitly describes the course of events 

 since the balloon burst. Since then the determination not to buy 

 has become a vertiable state of mind with the people at large. This 

 result reflects with especial clarity the tendencies of our poulation. 

 Democracy as exemjdified in the various departments of the govern- 

 ment in the country has been largely ridiculed as being anything but 

 representative, because our people arc prone to accept in more 

 or less facetious mood the violations of office indulged in by many of 

 the men intrusted with the duties of government. This apparently 

 humorous attitude continues until the strain is too great when the 

 whole regime is completely upset. The buyer 's strike reflects the same 

 condition. The people were too busy making money to figure care- 

 fully on how they spent it, until it finally became apparent that the 

 average man could not make quite enough to keep up with his neces- 

 sary expenditures. So today even those who have money are still 

 more or less influenced by the habit of not buying, although realiza- 



