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Copyright, The Hardwood Company, 1918 

 Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging, Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the 10th and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker, Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell. Technical Editor'. 



Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 



537 So. Dearborn Street. CHICAGO 



Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8088 





Vol. XLVI 



CHICAGO, NOVEMBER 10, 1918 



No. 2 



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Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



So SPEEDY HAS BEEN THE TURN OF EVENTS in the last 

 fourteen ^eeks that people had hardly adjusted their minds 

 to the probability of victory and peace when both were upon us. 

 But a month ago the country was exhibiting the fact that it had 

 finally come to a full realization of our being at war. All plans 

 and calculations, all thoughts and all questions of business policy 

 were organized on the basis of a continued war condition and there 

 was just sprouting the realization that we would some day have 

 to plan for the return of peace and to organize ourselves so as 

 to maintain and further business and industry during peace read- 

 justments and in the years to follow. The duty and task of all must 

 now be abruptly switched and centered on immediate readjustment 

 and plans for the future. 



As far as lumber is concerned, it is probable that its position is 

 stronger than that of many other industries and that there are more 

 definite reasons for believing in the development of great strength 

 at an early date. The greatest concern of lumbermen as well as men 

 in other industries during the war has been necessary goverimient 

 regulation and control of production and distribution. The circum- 

 stance which will be most potent in governing readjustment will be 

 the degree to whieli the government control may be withdrawn and 

 normal functioning started. Without doubt government control will 

 be lifted from consumption much more quickly than from produc- 

 tion as it is very apparently necessary that industries suppressed be- 

 cause of war necessities, must be given every encouragement. The 

 lumber industry is in a fortunate position covering both production 

 and markets. 



With uncertainty as to just what readjustment will bring forward, 

 the production organization must have an elasticity which will en- 

 able it to conform quickly and fully to new conditions and demands 

 as they arrive. The lumber industry fortunately is susceptible of 

 such quick readjustments as its product is not such as requires 

 specialized organization and equipment in switching from one Une 

 of output to another. It is even more fortunate in its markets as 

 almost without exception the wood-using industries have been serious- 

 ly repressed either by natural economic conditions or by specific reg- 

 ulation. This repression has amounted to vast curtailment in markets 

 which with peace conditions in effect will most surely be given 

 official support that they may develop vigorously and quickly. As 

 an illustration, the building industry has been practically extinct 

 except in those lines using only construction lumber. The higher 

 priced and more finished construction has been practically non-ex- 

 istent for several years. Construction of furniture has been dis- 



couraged and so on down the list of wood-using industries a survey 

 of the past situation shows that they have been restricted radically. 

 It is safe to assume that the government will give every reasonable 

 encouragement for speedy readjustment, as many industries in other 

 lines, which have been primarily engaged in war work, are not 

 susceptible of quick making over to peace production and it behooves 

 the government to foster speedy development of industries which can 

 be quickly made to conform with the peace condition. If this were 

 not done a period of serious and general stagnation would result, for 

 those industries which will require considerable time for the re- 

 adjustment will necessarily undergo a period of inactivity, and 

 the only way to prevent this being general is to encourage all healthy 

 activity in industries which can be brought around quickly. Fortunate- 

 ly, the wood-using industries are of such nature as to make it possible 

 to effect readjustment and rehabilitation without serious delay. 



So the future is concretely and clearly promising as to markets. 

 The prospect for prices is even more encouraging, as the past 

 two months during which the industry has been operating under the 

 embargo has seen widespread curtailment in lumber production. Any- 

 one who doubts the prospective strength of lumber values needs but 

 to consider the steady increment that has maintained through the 

 war period in the face of consistently dwindling normal markets. 

 Practically the only period showing a definite reaction in prices is 

 that period during which the general lumber embargo has been 

 operative and the recession of about one dollar in the composite 

 selling price of hardwood lumber in this period was the direct re- 

 sult of shipping difficulties and of that alone. The operation of the 

 embargo has caused losses and inconvenience to the lumber trade and 

 so delayed shipment and alarmed many manufacturers that they 

 resorted to the time honored custom of shading values in order to 

 turn over their stock more quickly. The result was lower prices on 

 many items and no compensating benefits. That the embargo wUl 

 be lifted as speedily as possible is shown by developments in that 

 direction that have already materialized. The trade has been greatly 

 benefited by the relief of certain territories and certain commodities, 

 and undoubtedly production will be greatly helped by the lifting of 

 the embargo from log shipments. The number of miUs shut down as 

 a direct result of the embargo has increased steadily, but it is 

 quite likely that where possible these mills will maintain themselves 

 in position to resume operations with the recurrence of prosperous 

 peace conditions. 



The only dark spot on the horizon at present is uncertainty as to 

 the developments inside of Germany. The armistice terms were 

 signed by authorities who no longer exist and it is just a question 

 as to how far the Russian idea may make headway among the Ger- 



