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Copyright, The Hardwood Company, 1918 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and Logging. Saw 



Mill and Woodworting Machinery, on the 1 0th and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. Meeker, Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell, Technical Editor 



Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 



537 So. Dearborn Street. CHICAGO 



Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087-8088 



Vol. XLVI 



CHICAGO, NOVEMBER 25, 1918 



No. 3 



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Review and Outlook 



General Market Conditions 



DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS the greatest progress iu the 

 lumber industry toward reconstruction has been along the lines 

 of crystallizing diverse opinions into what might be termed a trade 

 policy. The big mass meeting of lumbermen from all sections which 

 took place in Chicago last week was the climax to a series of recon- 

 struction meetings that have been held in different parts of the country 

 since the war ceased. 



The lumber trade recognizes, of course, that present inflated com- 

 modity prices will eventually be lower, but is strongly convinced that 

 so far as lumber is concerned any easing up in values will be very 

 gradual and will go hand in hand with decreasing cost of production. 

 Generally speaking, though, it is impossible to discern in the lumber 

 outlook any conditions that would make for early decreases in lumber 

 selling prices, as the momentum which carried manufacturing cost so 

 rapidly upward has not yet spent itself. In fact, the trade at large 

 has with difficulty been able to keep track of rapidly increasing pro- 

 duction figures. Manufacturers clearly recognize this situation now 

 and it is certain that there will be very few exceptions to the policy of 

 sitting tight. Prospects for the lumbermen are too favorable and 

 prospects for output indicate a too definite curtailment to make pos- 

 siljle any other course. 



It has been suggested that the lumber trade is possibly paying too 

 much attention to e.xport prosiiects, and in one sense this may be true, 

 but on the other hand, the export possibilities are far more definite 

 than they ever were before. Were the immediate future for lumber 

 export confined to normal proportions, export markets would prob- 

 ably not warrant the important consideration in the lumber program 

 which they now enjoy, but it is difficult to controvert the probability 

 that the demand for American lumber in foreign countries will be 

 great and that tliis business will be very definite in extent and in the 

 way it is carried out. The average man probably considers export 

 needs as confined merely to the reconstruction of destroyed sections, 

 but as a matter of fact, the biggest part of export trade will come from 

 localities which have not felt the destructive influences. The tendency 

 abroad has been to use other building materials than wood for home 

 building, but the war has brought changes in this direction as in many 

 others. Eepresentative men from foreign countries, because of close 

 association in America, have come to appreciate the value and prac- 

 ticability of the moilern and distinctly American style of architecture 

 and construction based on wood as the primary material. It is cer- 

 tain tliat this appreciation is going to have a substantial influence on 

 rebuilding and new building abroad, and the prospect is that great 

 quantities of American lumber will be needed outside the actual 

 zones of military operation. So far as rebuilding in these sections is 



concerned, it must be remembered that hundreds of millions of feet 

 of lumber will be salvaged from war uses and that the demand for 

 new material will be substantially reduced in the immediate war 

 areas because of this salvage possibility. On the other hand, vast 

 building projects are crystallizing outside the war zone and it is in 

 these directions that the bulk of lumber will be needed. 



It must be remembered that countries abroad also have their wood- 

 working industries normally using large quantities of wood for pro- 

 duction of the same articles as are manufactured by our own wood- 

 working industries. European industries have in the past years been 

 maintained mainly by artisans — men who manufacture various articles 

 in small quantities with their own labor. The war has completely 

 made over many of these industries abroad with the result that in 

 resuming operations many of the woodworking lines in foreign coun- 

 tries will proceed now more in conformity with American methods of 

 standardized quantity production. Necessarily, foreign nations are 

 going to give every encouragement to rapid resumption of commer- 

 cial production and there is no reason to believe that Ijnes using 

 lumber as a raw material will not feel the beneficial effects of such 

 action. Therefore, considering this prospect and also considering 

 the fact that all foreign markets have been absolutely denuded of 

 lumber, it may be anticipated that even outside the construction pro- 

 gram European niarkets in other lines are going to be hungry for 

 American forest products. Thus it may be expected that the export 

 need will be four or five times as great as it is normally, when it rep- 

 resents in the neighborhood of three or four per cent of the total 

 output of American lumber. 



So far as home industries are concerned, there has not been much 

 new development in the way of increasing orders for lumber, but 

 things are rapidly shaping themselves around to the point where {his 

 will follow as a sequence. All bans on building have now been re- 

 moved and it is stated that labor difficulty is becoming less. All 

 lumber shipping restrictions have been cancelled and for the most 

 part the scenes are laid for rapid coming back of normal trade. 

 Buyers are hesitant undoubtedly because of anticipation of lower 

 prices, and, as above stated, eventually lumber values will gradu- 

 ally come down with decreasing cost of production. But it is a 

 positive certainty that this -will not take place for a good many 

 months ahead as the conditions surrounding lumber production 

 render it absolutely impossible. 



Those buying lumber should bear in mind several points. Lumber 

 now on sticks ready for shipment has been produced at abnormally 

 high cost and this cost is thoroughly understood by producers. There 

 is absolutely no possibility of any quantity of it being released at 

 less than value. Production costs are still mounting in lumber manu- 



