16 



HARDWOOD RECORD 



November 25, 1918 



facturing circles and it will be five or six months at least before any 

 noticeable reduction in costs will take place. Thus lumber produced 

 during the next few months will represent as great an outlay to the 

 producer as has that manufactured up to the end of the war. So it 

 cannot be expected that lower priced lumber can possibly be put on 

 mill yards within five or six months, and it will then take several 

 months for this lower cost stock to become ready for shipping. In the 

 meantime, the high priced lumber now on hand and that which will Ije 

 manufactured whUe production figures arc still high cannot be cleaned 

 up before lower priced offerings are available. The lumber trade has 

 been more thoroughly organized and been given a more thorough 

 understanding of this necessity the last months than ever before. All 

 members of the trade recognize that lumber now on sticks and being 

 produced represents a greatly increased cost and there is so much 

 general confidence in the ultimate future that the lumber trade is not 

 willing to jeopardize that future by unnecessary sacrifices now. 



So far as lumber cost is concerned, labor is the primary factor, and 

 it is assured by definite resolutions on the part of representatives of 

 the entire industry that wages will not be reduced except as they may 

 gradually be brought down in conformity with decreasing living costs. 

 Labor in the lumber field will be subject to the same influences as in 

 other lines. The high peak of extravagant earnings of labor, brought 

 about by the necessity for offering fabulous inducements to speed up 

 war production will first disappear. Employees who have been oper- 

 ating under such conditions must seek employment in other lines not 

 in position to offer such financial inducements, and while it may be 

 difficult for a percentage of the laboring element to come dovra to 

 earth, the average laborer with dependents will soon learn in going 

 about among commercial employers that he cannot expect the inflated 

 returns he received under war conditions. This does not mean that 

 these producers of commercial goods will offer less for labor than 

 they have been offering, but even at their normal scale of wages, the 

 laboring man's pay will be less than he received through government 

 influence under the stress of war conditions. Thus, hundreds of thou- 

 sands of laborers who will get out of war production and be assimi- 

 lated gradually into commercial production will gradually realize that 

 they cannot indefinitely expect the fabulous returns they received as 

 war workers, and if their earnings are decreased not by arbitrary re- 

 duction on the part of employers but rather through gradual absorp- 

 tion by non-war industries, the change can very likely be brought 

 without any great labor upheaval. It is, of course, apparent to 

 everybody that the cycle of events under war conditions required 

 vast increases in currency in order to pay greatly increased prices on 

 all war commodities. It was of course necessary to offer such in- 

 ducements in order to maintain war production as against commercial 

 production. -War productiou now having ceased, abnormal outputs of 

 currency will also cease. So it may be expected that eventually labor 

 prices will gradually come down through natural influences, and the 

 lumber trade will do well to adhere strictly to the resolutions cover- 

 ing this point as adopted at the mass meeting last week. 



There are numerous side-lights on the lumber outlook which are in- 

 teresting in themselves. There are quite a number of various woods 

 which have been of special service in war construction, such as walnut. 

 In some of these cases the buying trade has come to the erroneous 

 conclusion that the vast quantities used in war construction so de- 

 pleted stocks that there would not be sufficient to meet commercial 

 need. Thus, many woodworkers have hesitated to include walnut in 

 their plans for future lines, being convinced without reason that the 

 airplane and gunstock program had taken the entire walnut resources 

 of the country. As a matter of fact, the walnut industry was never 

 organized until war requirements made this necessary and manufac- 

 turers never knew how much walnut the country could produce. The 

 result of this organization and of the effort to line up stocks has been 

 to uncover vast walnut resources which in quantity are beyond the best 

 calculations of the most experienced men in the business. As a matter 

 of fact, walnut manufacturers now have a bigger supply of walnut 

 logs on hand than they ever had before and they are probably in a 

 better position than ever to handle all commercial needs for this 

 product. 



Summarized, the lumber trade has before it the prospect of a very 



strong domestic and export demand and in connection with the latter, 

 it may be said that in the last week, there have been offerings of 

 bottoms for export business. There is the prospect of easy money in 

 future months to take care of building construction which undoubtedly 

 will get well under way during the winter months in the construction 

 of large buildings which wUl be followed briskly in the spring with 

 general residence construction. Lumber manufacturers are resigned 

 at the same time to greatly decreased output this winter, although 

 original estimates may be slightly increased, as it is reported that the 

 labor supply is already beginning to ease up slightly. The present 

 situation is strong in spite of the atisence of inquiries, and the future 

 outlook is even stronger. Thus the lumber trade really has the situa- 

 tion in its own hands, and if it is borne in mind that lumber now oil 

 sticks and to be produced in the next few months will be high priced 

 stock and if the trade as a whole adheres to a conservative policy on 

 production and maintains a firm attitude towards sales, its future 

 welfare is absolutely assured. 



Home Business Best 



MEN WHO WEAR FAESEEING SPECTACLES are now trying 

 to catch distant glimpses of business opportunities iu foreign 

 lands; but while straining their eyes in an attempt to penetrate the- 

 horizon, they may overlook promising fields of trade very much nearer. 

 Distance lends no special or mysterious value to opportunities. A 

 thing need not be far away in order to be worth much. 



People expect great changes in world conditions and there is reason 

 for such expectations; but it is foolishness to suppose that some of 

 the coming changes will not take place close home and that business 

 opportunities wHl not develop at our doors. No objection can be- 

 urged against seeking export trade, by those who are prepared for it 

 and want it ; but most people need not look so far away. The United 

 states is full of prospects, some immediate and at hand, others a little 

 more distant, yet within reach. Some lumbermen look longingly 

 toward the three hundred thousand houses to be built in England; 

 but more than six hundred thousand will be needed in America, and 

 why not reach for some of that business instead of longing for what 

 is beyond the sea? 



Europe needs tens of thousands of railroad cars. So do we. Motor 

 trucks will be wanted beyond the Atlantic; Init four times the num- 

 ber will be wanted in the United States. A shortage of furniture 

 exists in western Europe. At least an equal shortage exists here be- 

 cause our furniture factories have been busy with other work. The- 

 enumeration need not be carried through the whole category. The 

 same condition may be found everywhere. The home market is as 

 good as the foreign in nearly everything, and is better in most. Why 

 look to Siberia, China and Argentina when we need not look beyond 

 Michigan, North Carolina and Missouri for chances to make salesf 

 After taking advantage of all home chances, let surplus flow away to 

 distant lands. 



This is not in any way intended as counselling neglect of foreigrb 

 opjjortunities. Indeed, the export prospect is vast and should be de- 

 veloped to the last possible dollar. But at the same time there are- 

 just as important changes in our own country and the possibilities 

 here should not take second place to the possibilities for export 

 demand. 



The Embargo Cancelled 

 The lumber embargo which was declared in force Sept. 16, 1918, 

 has been cancelled, but not absolutely everywhere. Shipments to 

 Philadelphia, Boston, New York, and eastern Canadian points are 

 excepted. From information received, the operating conditions of" 

 the railroads are good and the roads are in a position to handle 

 traffic that may be offered. With the exceptions noted, shipments 

 of lumber and forest products can now go forward without securing^ 

 jiermits. The result on business will doubtless be quickly noticeable. 



The largest black walnut tree of which any record exists grew 

 on Long Island and the trunk was hewed hollow and made into a 

 cabin which was exhibited in New Tork and also, it is said, ia 

 London seventy-five years ago. The diameter of the tree is stated 

 to have been twelve feet. 



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