floMwol MM 



Copyright, The Hardwood Company, 1919 



Published in the Interest of the American Hardwood Forests, the Products thereof, and hogging. Saw 

 Mill and Woodworking Machinery, on the 10th and 25th of each Month, by 



THE HARDWOOD COMPANY 



Edgar H. Defebaugh, President 

 Edwin W. IVIeeker, Managing Editor 

 Hu Maxwell, Technical Editor 



Seventh Floor Ellsworth Building 

 537 So. Dearborn St., CHICAGO 

 Telephones: Harrison 8086-8087 



Vol. XLVI. 



CHICAGO, JANUARY 25, 1919 



No. 7 



General Market Conditions 



As FAR AS THE EFFECT on trade is concerned the reeonstrue- 

 tion months show the same influences in the lumber industry as 

 in other lines. Fundamentally the situation is not exactly the same, 

 but the period of making over is reflected with the same effect. The 

 situation has been aptly described as a contest between the buyers and, 

 sellers to see which can hold out longer. 



During the development of war industry it was not safe to base 

 one's prophesies for any individual line of business entirely upon the 

 fundamental matters of economics with which all lines of business 

 are involved in their respective manners. It was not safe to say: 

 "Business in general looks good, therefore, my business will be 

 good," or: "Business in general looks bad, therefore, my business 

 will be bad." It all depended upon the position of the individual 

 business. So it is not safe today to base one 's theories of the future 

 entirely upon the broad outlook, but to be sure one must just as care- 

 fully consider those conditions whieli have an especial bearing on, one's 

 own line of endeavor. 



The terse description of business given above surely holds true in 

 a general way, and it is equally true so far as the immediate present 

 is concerned in respect to the lumber business. It must be remem- 

 bered, though, that the fundamental law of supply and demand is 

 just as important a factor. Today sellers and buyers of hardwood 

 lumber are continuing to see-saw back and forth, the buyers taking 

 only those quantities that they will need and confidently expecting 

 a break in prices. 



The lumbermen, on the other liand, are gathering optimism rather 

 than losing it as the weeks go by, and undoubtedly are holding out 

 now with greater confidence in the outcome than they felt in the be- 

 ginning of the reconstruction period. It is reaUy not necessary to go 

 much further than consideration of supply in arriving at one's con- 

 elusions, because the supply in sight is so far short of what the nor- 

 mal demand might be that any falling off in realization of this de- 

 mand would have to be extremely marked in order to bring demand 

 down to the point of supply as it promises at this date. 



This phase of the situation has been emphasized repeatedly in this 

 column in late issues, but at no time has a prophecy of short supply 

 been based upon such certain figures as can be quoted at present. It 

 is stated on the best authority that taking in the whole southern hard- 

 wood producing region the average input of logs during the winter 

 logging period will not be fifty or at best fifty-five per cent. Log 

 buying practically ceased at the time the lumber embargo went into 

 effect several months ago, and Was never actively resumed while the 

 prospect of the continuance of the embargo faced the southern opera- 



tors. When the war was over and the embargo lifted it developed 

 that it will be impossible to organize logging crews before the wet 

 season sets in, and now it is absolutely certain that the quantity of 

 logs cut already is practically the limit of what may be cut during the 

 winter. This quantity is as above stated. 



Careful analysis of northern statistics reveals but slightly more 

 favorable outlook, but the very definite prospect of an almost equal 

 shortage in northern log cut. The open winter has played havoc 

 with plans and in the main the prospect for cut slightly over what 

 was estimated is practically wiped out by difficulty in the woods. In 

 some regions the logging country is just a mire, as it never has been 

 solidly frozen. The result is that logging is extremely difficult and 

 slow in some places, and absolutely impossible in others. This bad 

 weather condition on top of continued shortage and inferiority of 

 labor will keep the winter input of logs down to less than seventy 

 per cent of what it should be. The prospect is, therefore, for less 

 than sixty per cent of a normal hardwood log input the country over. 



Hardwood buying during the past year or year and a half has beea 

 mostly on war business. The biggest percentage of any stocks of 

 this character that have been accumulated are unsuited to commer- 

 cial production and, therefore, may be discounted. We come down 

 to the fact then that hardwood buying, except for specialized war 

 business, requiring specialized stocks, has been from hand to mouth, 

 or merely as the business on hand required for the past year and a half 

 or two years. This means that stocks in the wholesale and factory 

 yards are very little more than what is actually required for work on 

 the books. 



At the mills some items that have played an important part in war 

 work have accumulated, but the government has established a definite 

 policy of giving ample protection on such materials as may be fitted 

 for commercial consumption. In very few instances, therefore, are 

 there any accumulations of hardwood stocks which might have a. 

 tendency to flood the market. In fact, it is surprising how many 

 items it is difficult to buy at any price. It is further significant that 

 these difficult items are almost entirely in the normal commercial lines- 

 of hardwood output. The items that appear to be plentiful are those 

 which have been manufactured in quantity because of the pressing 

 need in war work, and as stated, the government is shovring a very 

 fair disposition in this direction. 



There has been a good deal of speculation as to the outlook for such 

 special items as mahogany and walnut propeller lumber. Here is a 

 very high grade of material manufactured at excessive cost that 

 would ordinarily be unsalable at a ijroper figure on the commercial 

 market. There is now a reasonable assurance that continued pur- 

 chases by the French government will take care of a very large pro- 



